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Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin: III. Modeling the Relative Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

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  • Mohammad S. Hoseyni

Abstract

Estimates have been made of the cancer potency of aflatoxin exposure among the U.S. population. Risk modeling is used to assess the dose‐response relationship between aflatoxin exposure and primary liver cancer, controlling for hepatitis B virus (HBV), based on data provided by the Yeh et al. study in China.(1) A relative risk model is proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the additive (“absolute” risk) model for transportation of risk coefficients between populations with different baseline rates. Several general relative risk models were examined; the exponential model provided the best fit. The Poisson regression method was used to fit the relative risk model to the grouped data. The effects of exposure to aflatoxin (AFB1) and hepatitis B infection were both found to be statistically significant. The risk of death from liver cancer for those exposed to AFB1 relative to the unexposed population, increases by 0.05% per ng/kg/day exposure of AFB1 (p

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad S. Hoseyni, 1992. "Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin: III. Modeling the Relative Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 123-128, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:12:y:1992:i:1:p:123-128
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01315.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nancy J. Gorelick, 1990. "Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin: I. Metabolism of Aflatoxin B1 by Different Species," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 539-559, December.
    2. Robert D. Bruce, 1990. "Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin: II. Implications of Human Epidemiology Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 561-569, December.
    3. William E. Barlow, 1985. "General Relative Risk Models in Stratified Epidemiologic Studies," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 34(3), pages 246-257, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Bowers & B. Brown & J. Springer & L. Tollefson & R. Lorentzen & S. Henry, 1993. "Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin: An Evaluation Based on the Multistage Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(6), pages 637-642, December.
    2. Anna H. Wu‐Williams & Lauren Zeise & Duncan Thomas, 1992. "Risk Assessment for Aflatoxin B1: A Modeling Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 559-567, December.

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