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Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways

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  • Bariş Tan
  • Emre N. Otay

Abstract

In this paper, we present a physics‐based stochastic model to investigate vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through a narrow waterway. A state‐space model is developed to represent the waterway and the location of vessels at a given time. We first determine the distribution of surface current at a given location of the waterway depending on channel geometry, bottom topography, boundary conditions, and the distribution of wind. Then we determine the distribution of the angular drift for a given vessel travelling at a given location of a waterway. Finally, we incorporate the drift probabilities and random arrival of vessels into a Markov chain model. By analyzing the time‐dependent and the steady‐state probabilities of the Markov chain, we obtain risk measures such as the probability of casualty at a given location and also the expected number of casualties for a given number of vessels arriving per unit time. Analysis of the Markovian model also yields an analytical result that shows that the expected number of casualties is proportional to square of the tanker arrival rate. We present our methodology on an experimental model of a hypothetical narrow waterway. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Reseach Logistics 46: 871–892, 1999

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  • Bariş Tan & Emre N. Otay, 1999. "Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(8), pages 871-892, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:46:y:1999:i:8:p:871-892
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1520-6750(199912)46:83.0.CO;2-I
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric E. Anderson & Wayne K. Talley, 1995. "The Oil Spill Size of Tanker and Barge Accidents: Determinants and Policy Implications," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 71(2), pages 216-228.
    2. Maurie J. Cohen, 1995. "Technological Disasters and Natural Resource Damage Assessment: An Evaluation of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 71(1), pages 65-82.
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    1. Özgecan S. Ulusçu & Birnur Özbaş & Tayfur Altıok & İlhan Or, 2009. "Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1454-1472, October.
    2. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    3. Özgecan Ulusçu & Tayfur Altıok, 2009. "Waiting time approximation in single-class queueing systems with multiple types of interruptions: modeling congestion at waterways entrances," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 291-313, November.
    4. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.
    5. Zhou, Kaiwen & Xing, Wenbin & Wang, Jingbo & Li, Huanhuan & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "A data-driven risk model for maritime casualty analysis: A global perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

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