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Bounds and properties of the expected value of sample information for a project‐selection problem

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  • L. P. Fatti
  • A. Mehrez
  • M. Pachter

Abstract

In this article we extend the work of Mehrez and Stulman [5] on the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) to the expected value of sample information (EVSI) for a class of economic problems dealing with the decision to reject or accept an investment project. It is shown that shifting the mean of the underlying a priori distribution of X, the project's monetary value from zero in either direction will decrease the associated EVSI of Y, the random sampled information. A theorem is then presented which gives an upper bound on the EVSI over all distributions of Y, as well as the structure of the posterior mean E[X|Y] for which this upper bound is achieved. Finally, the case where E[X|Y] is linear in Y is discussed and its performance compared with that of the optimal case.

Suggested Citation

  • L. P. Fatti & A. Mehrez & M. Pachter, 1987. "Bounds and properties of the expected value of sample information for a project‐selection problem," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 141-150, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:34:y:1987:i:1:p:141-150
    DOI: 10.1002/1520-6750(198702)34:13.0.CO;2-S
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew J. Hogan & James G. Morris & Howard E. Thompson, 1981. "Decision Problems Under Risk and Chance Constrained Programming: Dilemmas in the Transition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 698-716, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Niyazi Onur Bakir, 2015. "Monotonicity of the Selling Price of Information with Risk Aversion in Two Action Decision Problems," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 71-90, June.
    2. Niyazi Onur Bakır & Georgia-Ann Klutke, 2014. "Buying price of event information in two-action decision problems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 38-48, March.
    3. Mehrez, Abraham, 1997. "The interface between OR/MS and decision theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 38-47, May.
    4. Philippe Delquié, 2008. "The Value of Information and Intensity of Preference," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 129-139, September.
    5. J. Eric Bickel, 2008. "The Relationship Between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Two-Action Risk-Sensitive Problem," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 116-128, September.
    6. Debarun Bhattacharjya & Jo Eidsvik & Tapan Mukerji, 2013. "The Value of Information in Portfolio Problems with Dependent Projects," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 341-351, December.
    7. Peter I. Frazier & Warren B. Powell, 2010. "Paradoxes in Learning and the Marginal Value of Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 378-403, December.

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