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The usefulness of oil price forecasts—Evidence from survey predictions

Author

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  • Frederik Kunze
  • Markus Spiwoks
  • Kilian Bizer
  • Torsten Windels

Abstract

This paper evaluates survey forecasts for crude oil prices and discusses the implications for decision makers. A novel disaggregated data set incorporating individual forecasts for Brent and Western Texas Intermediate is used. We carry out tests for unbiasedness, sign accuracy, and forecast encompassing, followed by the computation of coefficients for topically oriented trend adjustments and the Theil's U measure. We also control for the forecast horizon finding heterogeneous results. Forecasts are more precise for shorter horizons, but less accurate than the naïve prediction. For longer horizons, topically oriented trend adjustments become more pronounced, but forecasters tend to outperform the naïve predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederik Kunze & Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer & Torsten Windels, 2018. "The usefulness of oil price forecasts—Evidence from survey predictions," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 427-446, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:39:y:2018:i:4:p:427-446
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.2916
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    Cited by:

    1. Hualing Lin & Qiubi Sun, 2020. "Crude Oil Prices Forecasting: An Approach of Using CEEMDAN-Based Multi-Layer Gated Recurrent Unit Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    3. Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Dushmanta Kumar Padhi & Neelamadhab Padhy & Akash Kumar Bhoi & Jana Shafi & Muhammad Fazal Ijaz, 2021. "A Fusion Framework for Forecasting Financial Market Direction Using Enhanced Ensemble Models and Technical Indicators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-31, October.
    5. Nguyen, Duy Tan & Adulyasak, Yossiri & Landry, Sylvain, 2021. "Research manuscript: The Bullwhip Effect in rule-based supply chain planning systems–A case-based simulation at a hard goods retailer," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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