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Capturing the Data Uncertainty Change in the Cocaine Consumption in Spain Using an Epidemiologically Based Model

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  • Christopher Anaya
  • Clara Burgos
  • Juan-Carlos Cortés
  • Rafael-J. Villanueva

Abstract

A probabilistic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the cocaine consumption in Spain during the period of 1995–2011. Using the so‐called probabilistic fitting technique, we study if the model is able to capture the data uncertainty coming from surveys. The proposed model is formulated through a nonlinear system of difference equations whose coefficients are treated as stochastic processes. A discussion regarding the usefulness and limitations of probabilistic fitting technique in order to capture the data uncertainty of the proposed model is presented.

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Handle: RePEc:wly:jnlaaa:v:2016:y:2016:i:1:n:1758459
DOI: 10.1155/2016/1758459
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