IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v54y2022i6p1839-1874.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Slowdown and Housing Dynamics in China: A Tale of Two Investments by Firms

Author

Listed:
  • FENG DONG
  • YUMEI GUO
  • YUCHAO PENG
  • ZHIWEI XU

Abstract

We study the housing boom and economic slowdown in China in a dynamic New Keynesian model. The model features a novel channel of firms' dynamic portfolio choice between physical and housing investment. Housing assets earn a positive return and can be used as collateral for the firm's external finances. A negative productivity shock decreases the relative return of production capital, which translates into a housing boom by increasing the firm's housing demand. A rise in house prices then generates competing effects on real investment: it raises the firm's leverage due to the collateral effect and depresses the firm's demand for physical capital because of the crowding‐out effect. After calibrating the model for the Chinese economy, our quantitative exercise suggests the former effect is dominated by the latter, resulting in countercyclical housing prices. The policy analysis shows that the capital subsidization policy targeting house prices performs better than other macro‐economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Dong & Yumei Guo & Yuchao Peng & Zhiwei Xu, 2022. "Economic Slowdown and Housing Dynamics in China: A Tale of Two Investments by Firms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1839-1874, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:6:p:1839-1874
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12882
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12882
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12882?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Chang, Chun & Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2019. "Reserve requirements and optimal Chinese stabilization policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 33-51.
    3. Fan, Haichao & Peng, Yuchao & Wang, Huanhuan & Xu, Zhiwei, 2021. "Greening through finance?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Hanming Fang & Quanlin Gu & Wei Xiong & Li-An Zhou, 2016. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 105-166.
    6. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    7. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    8. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Frédéric Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Frank Smets, 2016. "Booms and Banking Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(2), pages 489-538.
    11. Jie Gan, 2010. "Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel of Households," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2229-2267, June.
    12. Bing Han & Lu Han & Guozhong Zhu, 2018. "Housing Price And Fundamentals In A Transition Economy: The Case Of The Beijing Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1653-1677, August.
    13. Bleck, Alexander & Liu, Xuewen, 2018. "Credit expansion and credit misallocation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 27-40.
    14. Edward L. Glaeser, 2017. "Real Estate Bubbles and Urban Development," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 34(2), pages 114-151, September.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yin Germaschewski, 2023. "House price volatility in China: Demand versus supply," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(1), pages 199-220, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shuonan Zhang, 2024. "State‐owned enterprises and entrusted lending: Economic growth and business cycles in China," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 197-222, January.
    2. Guo, Yumei & Huang, Xianjing & Peng, Yuchao, 2020. "How does house price influence monetary policy transmission?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Zhang, He & Meng, Xianchun, 2021. "The crowding out channel: Housing boom and investment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    5. Shuonan Zhang, 2020. "State-owned enterprises and entrusted lending: A DSGE analysis for growth and business cycles in China," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2020-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    6. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Ma, Chao & Zhang, Shuoxun, 2024. "Can housing booms elevate financing costs of financial institutions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Chang Liu & Wei Xiong, 2018. "China's Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 25297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kumhof, Michael & Wang, Xuan, 2021. "Banks, money, and the zero lower bound on deposit rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Yin Germaschewski, 2022. "House price, credit supply, and government policy in China," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 971-1026, May.
    11. Shenzhe Jiang & Jianjun Miao & Yuzhe Zhang, 2022. "China'S Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, And Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1189-1237, August.
    12. Wei, Xiaoyun & Han, Liyan, 2020. "Targeted reduction in reserve requirement ratio and optimal monetary policy in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 209-230.
    13. Yin Germaschewski, 2023. "House price volatility in China: Demand versus supply," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(1), pages 199-220, January.
    14. Dong, Feng & Liu, Jianfeng & Xu, Zhiwei & Zhao, Bo, 2021. "Flight to housing in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "Credit spread variability in the U.S. business cycle: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-52.
    17. Vlieghe, Gertjan W, 2007. "Imperfect credit markets: implications for monetary policy," MPRA Paper 12957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
    20. Zaretski, Aliaksandr, 2021. "Financial constraints, risk sharing, and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 110757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:6:p:1839-1874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.