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Housing Price And Fundamentals In A Transition Economy: The Case Of The Beijing Market

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  • Bing Han
  • Lu Han
  • Guozhong Zhu

Abstract

This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Bing Han & Lu Han & Guozhong Zhu, 2018. "Housing Price And Fundamentals In A Transition Economy: The Case Of The Beijing Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1653-1677, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:59:y:2018:i:3:p:1653-1677
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12316
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Bing & Han, Lu & Zhou, Zhengyi, 2020. "Housing Market and Entrepreneurship: Micro Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 102597, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Aug 2020.
    2. Titman, Sheridan & Zhu, Guozhong, 2024. "City characteristics, land prices and volatility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Tianzheng Zhang & Yingxiang Zeng & Yingjie Zhang & Yan Song & Hongxun Li, 2020. "The Heterogenous Demand for Urban Parks between Home Buyers and Renters: Evidence from Beijing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-16, October.
    4. Shao, Xiaokuai & White, Alexander, 2021. "Outsiders, insiders and interventions in the housing market," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 110-134.
    5. Jian Yang & Meng Tong & Ziliang Yu, 2023. "Can volume be more informative than prices? Evidence from Chinese housing markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 633-672, August.
    6. Xiaoping Zhou & Tong Lei & Yuyao Wang & Tianzheng Zhang & Yingjie Zhang & Yan Song & Yingxiang Zeng, 2022. "The spillover effect of senior neighbors on housing prices: Evidence from Beijing, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1812, December.
    7. Zhu, Guozhong & Dale-Johnson, David, 2020. "Transition to the property tax in China: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Dong, Feng & Liu, Jianfeng & Xu, Zhiwei & Zhao, Bo, 2021. "Flight to housing in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Chang Liu & Wei Xiong, 2018. "China's Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 25297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Chi & Lu, Xiaomeng & Wan, Fang, 2023. "The effect of fraud experience on investment behavior," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
    12. Zhengyi Zhou & Hong Chen & Lu Han & Anming Zhang, 2021. "The Effect of a Subway on House Prices: Evidence from Shanghai," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 199-234, March.
    13. Galina An & Charles Becker & Enoch Cheng, 2021. "Bubbling Away: Forecasting Real Estate Prices, Rents, and Bubbles in a Transition Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 263-317, June.
    14. Feng Dong & Yumei Guo & Yuchao Peng & Zhiwei Xu, 2022. "Economic Slowdown and Housing Dynamics in China: A Tale of Two Investments by Firms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1839-1874, September.
    15. Shenzhe Jiang & Jianjun Miao & Yuzhe Zhang, 2022. "China'S Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, And Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1189-1237, August.

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