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Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of QE

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  • NAO SUDO
  • MASAKI TANAKA

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on the transmission mechanism of quantitative‐easing (QE) policy and address which matters most: the size of the bond purchases in each period (flow effects) or the total amount of bonds taken away from the private sectors (stock effects). To this end, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which short‐ and long‐term bonds are imperfect substitutes due to market segmentation and preferred habitats, using Japan's data from the 1980s to 2017. We find that (i) Japan's data support imperfect substitutability between short‐ and long‐term bonds, which implies that government bond purchases by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) reduce the term premium, exerting an expansionary effect on economic activity and prices; (ii) government bond purchases by BOJ have compressed the 10‐year yields by 50–100 basis points as of the end of 2017; and (iii) the compression of the term premium has been mainly driven by stock effects, which underscores the importance of the size of BOJ's government bond holdings in determining the term premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2021. "Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1719-1755, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:7:p:1719-1755
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12844
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    3. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Kawamoto, Takuji & Nakazawa, Takashi & Kishaba, Yui & Matsumura, Kohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2023. "Estimating the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s expansionary monetary policy under Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing during 2013–2020," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 208-224.
    5. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies at the effective lower bound," Technical Papers 03/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Junko Koeda & Yoichi Ueno, 2022. "A Preferred Habitat View of Yield Curve Control," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    7. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2024. "Central bank balance sheets and long-term interest rates : Revisiting Japan's unconventional monetary policy experience," Discussion Paper Series 758, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Noritaka Fukuma & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Kohei Maehashi & Naoki Matsuda & Keita Takemura & Kota Watanabe, 2024. "The Impact of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing and Yield Curve Control on the Functioning of the Japanese Government Bond Market," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    9. Basu, Parantap & Wada, Kenji, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and the bond market in Japan: A new Keynesian perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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