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Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?

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  • JAEBIN AHN
  • RUI C. MANO
  • JING ZHOU

Abstract

This paper contrasts real effective exchange rate (REER) measures based on different deflators (consumer price index, GDP deflator, and unit labor cost) and discusses potential implications for the link—or lack thereof—between the REER and the external balance. We begin by comparing the evolution of different measures of REER to confirm that the choice of deflator plays a significant role in REER movements. A subsequent empirical investigation based on 35 developed and emerging market economies over 1995–2017 yields comprehensive and robust evidence that only the REER deflated by unit labor cost exhibits contemporaneous patterns consistent with the expenditure‐switching mechanism. Finally, we show that a standard open‐economy model with nominal rigidities and trade in intermediate goods is able to generate these aforementioned patterns.

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  • Jaebin Ahn & Rui C. Mano & Jing Zhou, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2111-2130, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:52:y:2020:i:8:p:2111-2130
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12746
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    2. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Roberto Torrini, 2019. "Making room for new competitors. A comparative perspective on Italy’s exports in the euro-area market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 530, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    4. Martin Berka & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants," Working Papers 4, New Zealand Centre of Macroeconomics.
    5. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    6. Mr. Alvar Kangur, 2018. "Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2018/061, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    8. Claire Giordano, 2020. "An update of the Bank of Italy methodology underlying the estimation of price-competitiveness misalignments," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 556, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Claire Giordano, 2018. "Price and cost competitiveness misalignments of the euro area and of its main economies according to a quarterly BEER model, 1999-2017," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Mitali Das, 2023. "Probabilistic assessment of external sustainability in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(1), pages 5-29, January.
    11. Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano, 2018. "Rethinking prices and markets underlying price-competitiveness indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 447, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Mirdala, Rajmund & Semančíková, Jozefína & Ruščáková, Anna, 2019. "Determinants of Export and Import Functions in the EU Member Countries," MPRA Paper 99535, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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