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Interest Rates and Credit Risk

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  • CARLOS GONZÁLEZ‐AGUADO
  • JAVIER SUAREZ

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of shifts in interest rates on corporate leverage and default in the context of a dynamic model in which the link between leverage and default risk comes from the lower incentives of overindebted entrepreneurs to guarantee firm survival. The need to finance new investment pushes firms' leverage ratio above some state‐contingent target toward which firms gradually adjust through earnings retention. The response to interest rate rises and cuts is both asymmetric and heterogeneously distributed across firms. Our results help rationalize some of the evidence regarding the risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos González‐Aguado & Javier Suarez, 2015. "Interest Rates and Credit Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 445-480, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:2-3:p:445-480
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12182
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    3. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2012. "Do bank characteristics influence the effect of monetary policy on bank risk?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 220-222.
    4. Ekin Ayse Ozsuca & Elif Akbostanci, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 1208, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.
    5. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    6. Tarik Bazgour & Federico Platania, 2022. "A defaultable bond model with cyclical fluctuations in the spread process," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(2), pages 647-672, May.
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    8. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111427 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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