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Rural-to-urban migration in LDCS: a test of two rival models

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  • Prabir C. Bhattacharya

    (Economics Division, School of Management, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK)

Abstract

This paper provides a test-using an India data set-of both the Todaro-type probabilistic models of migration and a distinctly different view of the labour migration process which sees the rural-urban migration flow as consisting of two distinct streams, with separate incentives-one group migrating to the informal sector where wages are competitively determined and the other group to the formal sector with jobs mostly prearranged (and with rural-urban migration not contributing to an increase in unemployment in any meaningful sense). The policy implications of this alternative view of the labour migration process are clearly substantially different from those derived from the Todaro and the Harris-Todaro-type models. The evidence presented in this paper are seen to support this alternative view. The paper also considers the role of the social factors in migration decisions and examines the extent to which the variables which explain the migration for employment also explain the migration behaviour of those who gave various reasons other than employment for migration. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Prabir C. Bhattacharya, 2002. "Rural-to-urban migration in LDCS: a test of two rival models," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(7), pages 951-972.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:14:y:2002:i:7:p:951-972
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    2. Bhattacharya, Prabir C, 1993. "Rural-Urban Migration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 243-281, September.
    3. Banerjee, Biswajit, 1983. "The Role of the Informal Sector in the Migration Process: A Test of Probabilistic Migration Models and Labour Market Segmentation for India," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 399-422, November.
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    6. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    7. Prabir C. Bhattacharya, 2000. "An analysis of rural-to-rural migration in India," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(5), pages 655-667.
    8. Prabir C. Bhattacharya, 1995. "The economics of development: A review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 59-74, May.
    9. Bhattacharya, Prabir C, 1994. "A Multi-sector Model of LDC," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 225-255, August.
    10. Prabir C. Bhattacharya, 1998. "Sector-specific sticky wages and wage subsidy: a note," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 124-128, May.
    11. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1988. "Migration and urbanization," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 425-465, Elsevier.
    12. Prabir C. Bhattacharya, 1996. "The role of the informal sector in structural transformation: Some Indian evidence," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 83-94.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Amara & Mohamed Ayadi & Hatem Jemmali, 2019. "Rural–urban migration and income disparity in Tunisia: A decomposition analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 1053-1083, April.
    2. Gonzalo Duran, 2005. "Subsidios de Educación: Impacto en la Migración y Convergencia Regional," Public Economics 0512007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mandelman, Federico S. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel V., 2009. "Is Self-employment and Micro-entrepreneurship a Desired Outcome?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1914-1925, December.
    4. Prabir C. Bhattacharya, 2015. "A Model of Optimal Development: Further Results," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1504a, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
    5. Asfaha, T.A. & Jooste, Andre, 2006. "The agricultural input elasticity of rural-urban migration in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 45(1), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Saracoglu, Durdane Sirin & Roe, Terry L., 2013. "Internal Migration, Structural Change, and Economic Growth," Conference papers 332322, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Bhattacharya, Prabir C., 2011. "Informal sector, income inequality and economic development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 820-830, May.
    8. García-Díaz, César & Moreno-Monroy, Ana I., 2012. "Social influence, agent heterogeneity and the emergence of the urban informal sector," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1563-1574.
    9. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2016.
    10. Mahreen Mahmud & Tareena Musaddiq & Farah Said, 2010. "Internal Migration Patterns in Pakistan—The Case for Fiscal Decentralisation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 593-607.
    11. Beegle,Kathleen G. & Benjamin,Nancy Claire & Recanatini,Francesca & Santini,Massimiliano, 2014. "Informal economy and the World Bank," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6888, The World Bank.
    12. Cornilius Chikwama, 2004. "Rural Off-Farm Employment and Farm Investment: An Analytical Framework and Evidence from Zimbabwe," CERT Discussion Papers 0403, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    13. Nancy Benjamin & Ahmadou Aly Mbaye, 2014. "Informality, Growth, and Development in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-052, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Wayne Edwards & Lee Huskey, 2008. "Job search with an external opportunity: an experimental exploration of the Todaro Paradox," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 807-819, December.
    15. Mitra, Arup & Murayama, Mayumi, 2008. "Rural to Urban Migration: A District Level Analysis for India," IDE Discussion Papers 137, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Komeda, Kenji, 2021. "Environmental Factors and Internal Migration in India," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 20, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    17. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Post-Print halshs-00825807, HAL.
    18. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Working Papers id:5480, eSocialSciences.
    19. Cornilius Chikawama, 2004. "Quota Rural Off-Farm Employment and Farm Investment: An Analytical Framework and Evidence from Zimbabwe," Working Papers E04, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
    20. Gabriel V. Montes Rojas & Lucas Siga, 2009. "On the nature of micro-entrepreneurship: evidence from Argentina," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2667-2680.
    21. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
    22. Federico S. Mandelman & Gabriel Montes-Rojas, 2007. "Microentrepreneurship and the business cycle: is self-employment a desired outcome?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    23. repec:mse:cesdoc:13045 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Ivanic, Maros, 2004. "Implications of Household Saving on Poverty," Conference papers 331269, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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