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Do trend following strategies work in Chinese futures markets?

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  • Bin Li
  • Di Zhang
  • Yang Zhou

Abstract

We examine the performance of trend following strategies in Chinese commodity futures markets. We provide evidence that trend following‐based technical trading rules yield better performance than the buy and hold strategy on both individual contracts and sorted portfolios. The outperformance is robust to transaction costs, data frequency, sub‐prime crisis, shorting constraint, delayed execution, liquidity and parameters. Finally, the profitability of the trend following strategy may be subject to data snooping bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Li & Di Zhang & Yang Zhou, 2017. "Do trend following strategies work in Chinese futures markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(12), pages 1226-1254, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:12:p:1226-1254
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Kuan-Hau & Su, Xuan-Qi & Lin, Li-Feng & Shih, Yi-Cheng, 2021. "Profitability of moving-average technical analysis over the firm life cycle: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Fan, John Hua & Mo, Di & Zhang, Tingxi, 2022. "The “necessary evil” in Chinese commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    3. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Yi, 2020. "Intraday momentum in Chinese commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2021. "Managing volatility in commodity momentum," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 758-782, May.
    5. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Zhang, Tingxi, 2021. "Investable commodity premia in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. He, Chengying & Huang, Ke & Lin, Jianwu & Wang, Tianqi & Zhang, Zuominyang, 2023. "Explain systemic risk of commodity futures market by dynamic network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Wenbo Wu & Jiaqi Chen & Liang Xu & Qingyun He & Michael L. Tindall, 2019. "A statistical learning approach for stock selection in the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.
    9. Brooks, Robert & Brooks, Joshua A., 2022. "Samuelson hypothesis and carry arbitrage: U.S. and China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Fan, John Hua & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "A note on the behavior of Chinese commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    11. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2020. "The untold story of commodity futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 671-706, April.
    12. Zhang, Xuan & Xiao, Jun & Zhang, Zhekai, 2020. "An anatomy of commodity futures returns in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Huang, Wenyang & Gao, Tianxiao & Hao, Yun & Wang, Xiuqing, 2023. "Transformer-based forecasting for intraday trading in the Shanghai crude oil market: Analyzing open-high-low-close prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).

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