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CDS Inferred Stock Volatility

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  • Biao Guo

Abstract

Both CDS and out‐of‐money put option can protect investors against downside risk, so they are related while not being mutually replaceable. This study provides a straightforward linkage between corporate CDS and equity option by inferring stock volatility from CDS spread and, thus, enables a direct analogy with the implied volatility from option price. I find CDS inferred volatility (CIV) and option implied volatility (OIV) are complementary, both containing some information that is not captured by the other. CIV dominates OIV in forecasting stock future realized volatility. Moreover, a trading strategy based on the CIV–OIV mean reverting spreads generates significant risk‐adjusted return. These findings complement existing empirical evidence on cross‐market analysis. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:745–757, 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Biao Guo, 2016. "CDS Inferred Stock Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(8), pages 745-757, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:36:y:2016:i:8:p:745-757
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    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Yukun & Chen, Ding & Guo, Biao & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "The information content of CDS implied volatility and associated trading strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Younghwan Lee & Haerang Park, 2020. "Bank risk‐taking and market discipline: Evidence from CoCo bonds in Korea," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 885-894, June.
    3. Jansen, Jeroen & Das, Sanjiv R. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2018. "Local volatility and the recovery rate of credit default swaps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-29.
    4. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2023. "Credit default swaps, the leverage effect, and cross-sectional predictability of equity and firm asset volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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