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The information content of CDS implied volatility and associated trading strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Yukun
  • Chen, Ding
  • Guo, Biao
  • Xu, Yaofei
  • Yan, Cheng

Abstract

Using the theoretical link between put options and credit default swaps (CDS) in a very general setting, we develop a robust measure of CDS implied volatility (CIV) that captures the information content of CDS markets. Specifically, we use the unit recovery claim to bridge CDS and deep out-of-the-money put options of the same firm and then back out CIV via the binomial tree. Our CIV measure strongly co-moves with the option implied volatility (OIV), with a correlation coefficient of 0.8. Based on the standardized difference between CIV and OIV, we construct CDS and option trading strategies. Without taking transaction costs into account, the long–short CDS trading strategy achieves an annualized return of 58.29% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.97, which cannot be explained by non-parametric skewness and volatility risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Yukun & Chen, Ding & Guo, Biao & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "The information content of CDS implied volatility and associated trading strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:83:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922002502
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102295
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS; Implied volatility; Default probability; Unit recovery claim; Trading strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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