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Index Futures Trading and Stock Market Volatility in China: A Difference‐in‐Difference Approach

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  • Shiqing Xie
  • Taiping Mo

Abstract

Using panel data, which consist of stocks listed on the Chinese stock market during the period May 2005 to December 2012, this study examines the impact of the introduction of CSI 300 index futures on stock market volatility. A multi‐period difference‐in‐difference (DID) approach is used to check whether the volatility of the underlying CSI 300 stocks increases relative to a matching set of non‐CSI 300 stocks after the introduction of index futures. This study finds that the spot price experiences a long‐term trend of diminishing volatility commencing in 2009. Although volatility initially increases several months after the introduction of CSI stock index futures, the difference does not seem to persist as there seems to be little long‐run impact on spot price volatility from the introduction of index futures trading. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:282–297, 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Shiqing Xie & Taiping Mo, 2014. "Index Futures Trading and Stock Market Volatility in China: A Difference‐in‐Difference Approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 282-297, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:34:y:2014:i:3:p:282-297
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastián García-Andrade, 2019. "Efectos del rebalanceo de los índices de J.P. Morgan en 2014 sobre los rendimientos de los TES en moneda local," Borradores de Economia 1094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Jinyu Liu & Rui Zhong, 2018. "Equity index futures trading and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Chinese markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(11), pages 1313-1333, November.
    3. Qian Han & Jufang Liang, 2017. "Index Futures Trading Restrictions and Spot Market Quality: Evidence from the Recent Chinese Stock Market Crash," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 411-428, April.
    4. Qin Lu & Zongyi Zhang, 2022. "Do Financial Support Policies Catalyse the Development of New Consumption Field?—Evidence from China’s New Consumer Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    5. Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2019. "The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 96-110.
    6. Greppmair, Stefan & Theissen, Erik, 2019. "Small is beautiful? How the introduction of mini futures contracts affects the regular contract," CFR Working Papers 19-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Ki Yool, 2023. "Who benefits more? Shanghai-Hong Kong stock Connect—“Through Train”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 409-427.
    8. Zhang, Dongyang, 2020. "Do credit squeezes influence firm survival? An empirical investigation of China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    9. Greppmair, Stefan & Theissen, Erik, 2022. "Small is beautiful? How the introduction of mini futures contracts affects the regular contracts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 19-38.
    10. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    12. Yang Gao & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "Impacts of Introducing Index Futures on Stock Market Volatilities: New Evidences from China," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Effect of futures trading on the liquidity of underlying stocks: Evidence from Vietnam," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "Futures trading activity and the jump risk of spot market: Evidence from the bitcoin market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Time-varying volatility spillover between Chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a DCC-GARCH model with a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-143.
    16. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Han, Qian & Zhao, Chengzhi & Chen, Jing & Guo, Qian, 2022. "Reexamining the impact of closing call auction on market quality: A natural experiment from the Shanghai stock exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    19. Weiyi Xia & Tao Xiong & Miao Li, 2024. "Can night trading reduce price volatility? Evidence from China's corn and corn starch futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 585-604, April.
    20. Lu, Fei & Ma, Feng & Bouri, Elie & Liao, Yin, 2024. "Do commodity futures have a steering effect on the spot stock market in China? New evidence from volatility forecasting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    21. Geeta Duppati & Yang (Greg) Hou & Frank Scrimgeour, 2017. "The dynamics of price discovery for cross-listed stocks evidence from US and Chinese markets," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1389675-138, January.
    22. Sui, Cong & Lung, Peter & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Index option trading and equity volatility: Evidence from the SSE 50 and CSI 500 stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 60-75.
    23. ElBannan, Mona A., 2020. "Does catering behavior persist? Evidence on dividend sentiment in emerging financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-373.

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