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Market efficiency among futures with different maturities: Evidence from the crude oil futures market

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  • Kaoru Kawamoto
  • Shigeyuki Hamori

Abstract

Although many studies have investigated market efficiency of spot and futures prices, that among futures with different maturities has not been studied extensively. In this study, market efficiency and unbiasedness among such futures are defined and the concept of “consistently efficient (or consistently efficient and unbiased) market within n‐month maturity” is introduced. According to this definition, market efficiency and unbiasedness among WTI futures with different maturities are tested using cointegration analysis, and short‐term market efficiency, using an error correction model and GARCH‐M‐ECM. The results show that WTI futures are consistently efficient within 8‐month maturity and consistently efficient and unbiased within 2‐month maturity. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:487–501, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Kaoru Kawamoto & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Market efficiency among futures with different maturities: Evidence from the crude oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 487-501, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:5:p:487-501
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M. & Roberts, Helen, 2019. "A novel market efficiency index for energy futures and their term structure risk premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 23-33.
    2. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2015. "Do oil spot and futures prices move together?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 379-390.
    3. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2016. "The Volatility of Oil Prices: What Factors?," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 98-110, March.
    4. Stuart Snaith & Neil M. Kellard & Norzalina Ahmad, 2018. "Open outcry versus electronic trading: Tests of market efficiency on crude palm oil futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 673-695, June.
    5. Javier Garcia-Verdugo & Meliyara Sirex Consuegra, 2013. "Estimating functional efficiency in energy futures markets," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 105-115.
    6. Delphine H. Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel A. Robe, 2019. "Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 125-154, May.
    7. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel Robe, 2017. "Information Flows across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices," Post-Print hal-01781761, HAL.
    8. Xianfang Su & Huiming Zhu & Xinxia Yang, 2019. "Heterogeneous Causal Relationships between Spot and Futures Oil Prices: Evidence from Quantile Causality Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    9. You-How Go & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2019. "Palm oil spot-futures relation: Evidence from unrefined and refined products," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 133-142.
    10. Liang Hu & Yoon‐Jin Lee, 2024. "New evidence on crude oil market efficiency," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 892-916, April.
    11. Onder Buberkoku, 2017. "Examining Energy Futures Market Efficiency Under Multiple Regime Shifts," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 61-71.

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