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Valuation of housing index derivatives

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  • Melanie Cao
  • Jason Wei

Abstract

This study analyzes the valuation of housing index derivatives traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Specifically, to circumvent the nontradability of housing indices, we propose and implement an equilibrium valuation framework. Assuming a mean‐reverting aggregate dividend process and a utility function characterized by constant relative risk aversion, we show that the value of a housing index derivative depends only on parameters characterizing the underlying housing index, the endogenized interest rate and their correlation. We also analytically and numerically examine risk premiums for the CME futures and options and obtain three important findings. First, risk premiums are significant for all contracts with maturities longer than one year. Second, the expected growth rate of the underlying index is the key determinant for risk premiums. Third, risk premiums can be positive or negative, depending on whether the expected growth rate of the underlying index is higher or lower than the risk‐free yield‐to‐maturity. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:660–688, 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Melanie Cao & Jason Wei, 2010. "Valuation of housing index derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 660-688, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:30:y:2010:i:7:p:660-688
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    Cited by:

    1. Dong Zou & Pu Gong, 2017. "A Lattice Framework with Smooth Convergence for Pricing Real Estate Derivatives with Stochastic Interest Rate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 242-263, August.
    2. Gong, Pu & Zou, Dong & Wang, Jiayue, 2018. "Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 500(C), pages 177-188.
    3. Raza, Naveed & Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Syed Ali, 2018. "Do commodities effectively hedge real estate risk? A multi-scale asymmetric DCC approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 10-29.
    4. Schorno, Patrick J. & Swidler, Steve M. & Wittry, Michael D., 2014. "Hedging house price risk with futures contracts after the bubble burst," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 332-340.
    5. Frontczak, Robert & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Modeling loss given default with stochastic collateral," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-170.
    6. repec:ags:aaea22:335626 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, August.
    8. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2012. "A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 762-789, November.
    9. Gong, Pu & Dai, Jun, 2017. "Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 309-323.

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