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Hedging house price risk with futures contracts after the bubble burst

Author

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  • Schorno, Patrick J.
  • Swidler, Steve M.
  • Wittry, Michael D.

Abstract

This paper extends the existing literature on managing house price risk. While previous work finds that a hedger would have reduced a large amount of variance in housing returns in Las Vegas, Nevada using Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures contracts, we show that neither static nor dynamic strategies would have maintained an effective hedge during the significant decline in housing prices. The inability to hedge house price risk using CME futures contracts ultimately calls into question the long-term viability of housing futures.

Suggested Citation

  • Schorno, Patrick J. & Swidler, Steve M. & Wittry, Michael D., 2014. "Hedging house price risk with futures contracts after the bubble burst," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 332-340.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:332-340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2014.06.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2008. "Derivatives Markets for Home Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1648, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Melanie Cao & Jason Wei, 2010. "Valuation of housing index derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 660-688, July.
    3. William M. Doerner & Andrew V. Leventis, 2015. "Distressed Sales and the FHFA House Price Index," Journal of Housing Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 127-146, January.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    5. William L. Silber, 1981. "Innovation, competition, and new contract design in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 123-155, June.
    6. Reichert, Alan K, 1990. "The Impact of Interest Rates, Income, and Employment upon Regional Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 373-391, December.
    7. Mark Bertus & Harris Hollans & Steve Swidler, 2008. "Hedging House Price Risk with CME Futures Contracts: The Case of Las Vegas Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 265-279, October.
    8. Mark G. Castelino, 1992. "Hedge effectiveness: Basis risk and minimum‐variance hedging," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 187-201, April.
    9. Cuny, Charles J, 1993. "The Role of Liquidity in Futures Market Innovations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 57-78.
    10. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
    11. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dong Zou & Pu Gong, 2017. "A Lattice Framework with Smooth Convergence for Pricing Real Estate Derivatives with Stochastic Interest Rate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 242-263, August.
    2. Raza, Naveed & Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Syed Ali, 2018. "Do commodities effectively hedge real estate risk? A multi-scale asymmetric DCC approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 10-29.
    3. Kim, Joseph H.T. & Li, Johnny S.H., 2017. "Risk-neutral valuation of the non-recourse protection in reverse mortgages: A case study for Korea," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-154.
    4. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2021. "Cross-commodity hedging for illiquid futures: Evidence from China's base metal futures market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedging; Residential real estate; Housing; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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