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Volatility components: The term structure dynamics of VIX futures

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  • Zhongjin Lu
  • Yingzi Zhu

Abstract

In this study we empirically study the variance term structure using volatility index (VIX) futures market. We first derive a new pricing framework for VIX futures, which is convenient to study variance term structure dynamics. We construct five models and use Kalman filter and maximum likelihood method for model estimations and comparisons. We provide evidence that a third factor is statistically significant for variance term structure dynamics. We find that our parameter estimates are robust and helpful to shed light on economic significance of variance factor model. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:230–256, 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongjin Lu & Yingzi Zhu, 2010. "Volatility components: The term structure dynamics of VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 230-256, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:30:y:2010:i:3:p:230-256
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Hung-Wen & Chang, Li-Han & Lo, Chien-Ling & Tsai, Jeffrey Tzuhao, 2023. "Empirical performance of component GARCH models in pricing VIX term structure and VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 122-142.
    2. Yoo, Eun Gyu & Yoon, Sun-Joong, 2020. "CBOE VIX and Jump-GARCH option pricing models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 839-859.
    3. Bujar Huskaj & Marcus Nossman, 2013. "A Term Structure Model for VIX Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 421-442, May.
    4. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    5. H. Kent Baker & Satish Kumar & Nitesh Pandey, 2021. "Forty years of the Journal of Futures Markets: A bibliometric overview," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1027-1054, July.
    6. Wang, Qi & Wang, Zerong, 2020. "VIX valuation and its futures pricing through a generalized affine realized volatility model with hidden components and jump," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Qi Wang & Zerong Wang, 2021. "VIX futures and its closed‐form pricing through an affine GARCH model with realized variance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 135-156, January.
    8. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Le, Anh & Rodriguez, Marius, 2017. "The price of variance risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 225-250.
    9. Nikolas Michael & Mihai Cucuringu & Sam Howison, 2024. "A GCN-LSTM Approach for ES-mini and VX Futures Forecasting," Papers 2408.05659, arXiv.org.
    10. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Liu, Tengdong & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Risk spillovers in oil-related CDS, stock and credit markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 526-535.
    11. Ai Jun Hou & Lars L. Nordén, 2018. "VIX futures calendar spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 822-838, July.
    12. Yixiao Jiang, 2020. "A Hausman Test for Partially Linear Models with an Application to Implied Volatility Surface," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    13. Milan Bašta & Peter Molnár, 2019. "Long‐term dynamics of the VIX index and its tradable counterpart VXX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 322-341, March.
    14. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    15. Huang, Darien & Schlag, Christian & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Thimme, Julian, 2018. "Volatility-of-volatility risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 210, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. "Time connectedness of fear," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 905-931, March.
      • Julián Andrada-Félixa & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "“Time connectedness of fear”," IREA Working Papers 201818, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2018.
    17. Zhiguang Wang & Brice Dupoyet, 2019. "A dimension‐invariant cascade model for VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1214-1227, October.
    18. Xingguo Luo & Jin E. Zhang & Wenjun Zhang, 2019. "Instantaneous squared VIX and VIX derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1193-1213, October.

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