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Market timing of CTAs: An examination of systematic CTAs vs. discretionary CTAs

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  • Hossein Kazemi
  • Ying Li

Abstract

This study uses a set of return‐based factors to explore market (return and volatility) timing ability of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). Unlike previous research, we use return‐based factors that are related to the futures markets in which most CTAs trade. This leads to higher explanatory power for our multifactor model. Our approach allows us to test for the presence of market timing in multiple markets. Accordingly, we are able to identify the markets in which CTAs may have market timing ability. We find that systematic CTAs are generally more skilled at market timing than discretionary CTAs, with the latter having slightly better overall risk‐adjusted performance during our study period: January 1994 to December 2004. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1067–1099, 2009

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  • Hossein Kazemi & Ying Li, 2009. "Market timing of CTAs: An examination of systematic CTAs vs. discretionary CTAs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1067-1099, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:29:y:2009:i:11:p:1067-1099
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    Cited by:

    1. Lundström, Christian, 2017. "On the Returns of Trend-Following Trading Strategies," Umeå Economic Studies 948, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    2. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander, 2022. "The crisis alpha of managed futures: Myth or reality?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Li, Chenlu & Li, Baibing & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2020. "Are hedge funds active market liquidity timers?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Ludwig Chincarini, 2014. "The Impact of Quantitative Methods on Hedge Fund Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(5), pages 857-890, November.
    5. Viet Do & Robert Faff & Paul Lajbcygier & Madhu Veeraraghavan & Mikhail Tupitsyn, 2016. "Factors affecting the birth and fund flows of CTAs," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(2), pages 324-352, May.
    6. Gert Elaut & Michael Frömmel & Alexander Mende, 2017. "Duration Dependence, Behavioral Restrictions, and the Market Timing Ability of Commodity Trading Advisors," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 427-450, September.
    7. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    8. Luo, Ji & Tee, Kai-Hong & Li, Baibing, 2017. "Timing liquidity in the foreign exchange market: Did hedge funds do it?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-62.
    9. Damir Tokic, 2012. "The passive investor puzzle," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(2), pages 141-154, April.

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