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Discretionary government intervention and the mispricing of index futures

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  • Paul Draper
  • Joseph K. W. Fung

Abstract

This article examines how and to what extent direct market intervention by the Hong Kong government in both the stock and futures markets affected the pricing relationship between the Hang Seng Index futures and the cash index during the period of the Asian financial crisis. The study avoids infrequent trading and nonexecution problems by using tradeable bid and offer quotes for the constituent stocks of the index. The results show that arbitrage efficiency was impeded during, and in the immediate aftermath of, the intervention. The findings suggest that discretionary government action introduces an additional risk factor for arbitrageurs that continues to disrupt normal market processes even after the government ceases to intervene. The continued disruption following the government's actions in the market also stems from a poorly developed stock loan market that impedes short selling, as well as a lack of liquidity in the market. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:1159–1189, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Draper & Joseph K. W. Fung, 2003. "Discretionary government intervention and the mispricing of index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(12), pages 1159-1189, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:23:y:2003:i:12:p:1159-1189
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuxin Guo, 2021. "Do futures lead the index under stress? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese market turmoil and its aftermath," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 91-110, January.
    2. Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.
    3. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    5. Luong, Phat V. & Sopranzetti, Ben, 2022. "Commodity markets intervention: Consequences of speculation, and informed trading," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    6. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, October.
    7. Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon & Yang, Heejin, 2023. "Investor sentiment and futures market mispricing," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    8. Tu, Anthony H. & Hsieh, Wen-Liang G. & Wu, Wei-Shao, 2016. "Market uncertainty, expected volatility and the mispricing of S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    9. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley, 2022. "Financially constrained index futures arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1688-1703, September.

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