IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v40y2021i8p1581-1595.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS

Author

Listed:
  • Afees A. Salisu
  • Juncal Cuñado
  • Kazeem Isah
  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

Relying on the uncovered equity parity (UEP), we formulate a predictive model that links movements in exchange rate to stock return differential between the domestic market and the foreign (US) market. We also test for any probable asymmetric relationship between the two variables while also accounting for the role of observed common (global) factor such as oil price. We find a positive relationship between stock return differential and exchange rate return for three of the BRICS countries namely Brazil, India and South Africa, thus validating the UEP hypothesis, whereas a contrasting evidence is observed for China and Russia. We further establish the out‐of‐sample predictability of stock return differential for exchange rates of the BRICS while accounting for the role of observed common (global) factor, and asymmetry may further improve the forecast accuracy. The implications of our findings for portfolio diversification and foreign exchange management are highlighted.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cuñado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1581-1595, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:40:y:2021:i:8:p:1581-1595
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2795
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2795?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2004. "Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 641-657, August.
    2. Imad Moosa, 2013. "Why is it so difficult to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3340-3346, August.
    3. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 81-91, February.
    4. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    5. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    6. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    9. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    11. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, January.
    12. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2010. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 125-173.
    13. Benjamin Chabot & Eric Ghysels & Ravi Jagannathan, 2014. "Momentum Trading, Return Chasing, and Predictable Crashes," NBER Working Papers 20660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
    15. Aftab, Muhammad & Ahmad, Rubi & Ismail, Izlin, 2018. "Examining the uncovered equity parity in the emerging financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 233-242.
    16. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    17. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
    18. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
    19. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2015. "A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 391-402.
    20. Melvin, Michael & Prins, John, 2015. "Equity hedging and exchange rates at the London 4p.m. fix," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 50-72.
    21. Ülkü, Numan & Fatullayev, Sabutay & Diachenko, Daria, 2016. "Can risk-rebalancing explain the negative correlation between stock return differential and currency? Or, does source status drive it?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-54.
    22. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Cheng‐Che Hsu, 2019. "Do stock markets have predictive content for exchange rate movements?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 699-713, November.
    23. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    24. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    25. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    26. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
    27. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Has oil price predicted stock returns for over a century?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-23.
    28. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic: The role of health news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    29. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    30. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    31. Douglas Wong & Kui-Wai Li, 2010. "Comparing the performance of relative stock return differential and real exchange rate in two financial crises," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 137-150.
    32. Imad Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2014. "Error correction modelling and dynamic specifications as a conduit to outperforming the random walk in exchange rate forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3107-3118, September.
    33. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2007. "The uncovered return parity condition," Working Paper Series 812, European Central Bank.
    34. Kim, Heeho, 2011. "The risk adjusted uncovered equity parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1491-1505.
    35. Dirk G Baur & Isaac Miyakawa, 2013. "International Investors, Exchange Rates and Equity Prices," Working Paper Series 178, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    36. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cunado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Behaviour of the BRICS for Over a Century," Working Papers 202064, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    37. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    38. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    39. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Climate Risks and Prediction of Sectoral REITs Volatility: International Evidence," Working Papers 202434, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Qabhobho, Thobekile & Moyo, Clement & Tsaurai, Kunofiwa, 2023. "Complementarity or Substitutability between Outward FDI and Exporting in Influencing Economic Growth: The BRICS Countries Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 275-296.
    3. Khyati Kathuria & Nand Kumar, 2022. "Pandemic‐induced fear and government policy response as a measure of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from (a)symmetric wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 361-379, October.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong, 2022. "Exchange rate predictability with nine alternative models for BRICS countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Sokhanvar, Amin & Çiftçioğlu, Serhan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Comparative analysis of the exchange rates-stock returns nexus in commodity-exporters and -importers before and during the war in Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    6. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2022. "Modeling the Yield Curve of BRICS Countries: Parametric vs. Machine Learning Techniques," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Utkarsh Kumar & Wasim Ahmad & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2024. "Bayesian Markov switching model for BRICS currencies' exchange rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2322-2340, September.
    8. Peter Arhenful & Richard Fosu & Mathew Owusu-Mensah, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Stock Price Nexus: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 12(4), pages 9-15.
    9. Thobekile Qabhobho & Anokye M. Adam & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei, 2023. "Do Local and International Shocks Matter in the Interconnectedness amid Exchange Rates and Energy Commodities? Insights into BRICS Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 666-678, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Olaniran, Abeeb & Tchankam, Jean Paul, 2022. "Oil tail risk and the tail risk of the US Dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2019. "Uncovered equity “disparity” in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cunado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Behaviour of the BRICS for Over a Century," Working Papers 202064, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru, 2021. "Palm Oil Price–Exchange Rate Nexus In Indonesia And Malaysia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(2), pages 169-180, June.
    7. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    8. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Currency exchange rate predictability: The new power of Bitcoin prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    10. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
    11. Imad Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2016. "The random walk as a forecasting benchmark: drift or no drift?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(43), pages 4131-4142, September.
    12. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Kuk Mo Jung, 2017. "Liquidity Risk And Time-Varying Correlation Between Equity And Currency Returns," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 898-919, April.
    14. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    16. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
    17. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Nikas, Christos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2023. "Turkey: From a thriving economic past towards a rugged future? - An empirical analysis on the Turkish financial markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Souropanis, Ioannis, 2019. "The role of technical indicators in exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 197-221.
    19. Jung, JiYong & Jung, Kuk Mo, 2021. "Stock market uncertainty and uncovered equity parity deviation: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Burns, Kelly & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Enhancing the forecasting power of exchange rate models by introducing nonlinearity: Does it work?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-39.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:40:y:2021:i:8:p:1581-1595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.