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Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS

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  • Afees A. Salisu
  • Juncal Cuñado
  • Kazeem Isah
  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

Relying on the uncovered equity parity (UEP), we formulate a predictive model that links movements in exchange rate to stock return differential between the domestic market and the foreign (US) market. We also test for any probable asymmetric relationship between the two variables while also accounting for the role of observed common (global) factor such as oil price. We find a positive relationship between stock return differential and exchange rate return for three of the BRICS countries namely Brazil, India and South Africa, thus validating the UEP hypothesis, whereas a contrasting evidence is observed for China and Russia. We further establish the out‐of‐sample predictability of stock return differential for exchange rates of the BRICS while accounting for the role of observed common (global) factor, and asymmetry may further improve the forecast accuracy. The implications of our findings for portfolio diversification and foreign exchange management are highlighted.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cuñado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1581-1595, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:40:y:2021:i:8:p:1581-1595
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2795
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    2. Qabhobho, Thobekile & Moyo, Clement & Tsaurai, Kunofiwa, 2023. "Complementarity or Substitutability between Outward FDI and Exporting in Influencing Economic Growth: The BRICS Countries Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 275-296.
    3. Khyati Kathuria & Nand Kumar, 2022. "Pandemic‐induced fear and government policy response as a measure of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from (a)symmetric wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 361-379, October.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong, 2022. "Exchange rate predictability with nine alternative models for BRICS countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Sokhanvar, Amin & Çiftçioğlu, Serhan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Comparative analysis of the exchange rates-stock returns nexus in commodity-exporters and -importers before and during the war in Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    6. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2022. "Modeling the Yield Curve of BRICS Countries: Parametric vs. Machine Learning Techniques," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Utkarsh Kumar & Wasim Ahmad & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2024. "Bayesian Markov switching model for BRICS currencies' exchange rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2322-2340, September.
    8. Peter Arhenful & Richard Fosu & Mathew Owusu-Mensah, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Stock Price Nexus: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 12(4), pages 9-15.
    9. Thobekile Qabhobho & Anokye M. Adam & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei, 2023. "Do Local and International Shocks Matter in the Interconnectedness amid Exchange Rates and Energy Commodities? Insights into BRICS Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 666-678, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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