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Regional, individual and political determinants of FOMC members' key macroeconomic forecasts

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  • Stefan Eichler
  • Tom Lähner

Abstract

We study Federal Open Market Committee members' individual forecasts of inflation and unemployment in the period 1992–2004. Our results imply that Governors and Bank presidents forecast differently, with Governors submitting lower inflation and higher unemployment rate forecasts than bank presidents. For Bank presidents we find a regional bias, with higher district unemployment rates being associated with lower inflation and higher unemployment rate forecasts. Bank presidents' regional bias is more pronounced during the year prior to their elections or for nonvoting bank presidents. Career backgrounds or political affiliations also affect individual forecast behavior.

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  • Stefan Eichler & Tom Lähner, 2018. "Regional, individual and political determinants of FOMC members' key macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 119-132, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:37:y:2018:i:1:p:119-132
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2481
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    1. repec:hal:journl:hal-04670309 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jaime Marquez & S Yanki Kalfa, 2021. "The Forecasts of Individual FOMC Members: New Evidence after Ten Years," Working Papers 2021-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Davide Romelli & Hamza Bennani, 2021. "Disagreement inside the FOMC: New Insights from Tone Analysis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

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