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Panel parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric construction of counterfactuals

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  • Cheng Hsiao
  • Qiankun Zhou

Abstract

We consider panel parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric methods of constructing counterfactuals. We show through extensive simulations that no method is able to dominate other methods in all circumstances, since the true data‐generating process is typically unknown. We therefore also suggest a model‐averaging method as a robust method to generate counterfactuals. As an illustration of the sensitivity of counterfactual construction, we reexamine the impact of California's Tobacco Control Program on per capita cigarette consumption and election day registration (EDR) laws on voters' turnout by different methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng Hsiao & Qiankun Zhou, 2019. "Panel parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric construction of counterfactuals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 463-481, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:34:y:2019:i:4:p:463-481
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2702
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    1. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    2. Yi‐Ting Chen, 2020. "A distributional synthetic control method for policy evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 505-525, August.
    3. Fu, Yifan & Zhong, Shiquan & Ling, Shuai & He, Zhengbing, 2024. "Closing the loophole of vehicle ownership restriction: The impact of non-local vehicle restriction on new vehicle registrations and air pollution," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Callaway, Brantly & Karami, Sonia, 2023. "Treatment effects in interactive fixed effects models with a small number of time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 184-208.
    5. Xiaomeng Zhang & Wendun Wang & Xinyu Zhang, 2022. "Asymptotic Properties of the Synthetic Control Method," Papers 2211.12095, arXiv.org.
    6. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakėnas, 2022. "Dancing Alone or Together: The Dynamic Effects of Independent and Common Monetary Policies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 217-241, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    8. Wilmer Martínez-Rivera & Thomaz Carvalhaes & Petar Jevtić & T. Agami Reddy, 2023. "A treatment-effect model to quantify human dimensions of disaster impacts: the case of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2033-2068, March.
    9. Li, Xingyu & Shen, Yan & Zhou, Qiankun, 2024. "Confidence intervals of treatment effects in panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    10. Viviano, Davide & Bradic, Jelena, 2023. "Synthetic Learner: Model-free inference on treatments over time," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 691-713.
    11. Cheng Hsiao & Yimeng Xie & Qiankun Zhou, 2021. "Factor dimension determination for panel interactive effects models: an orthogonal projection approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 1481-1497, June.
    12. Shui Ki Wan & Cheng Hsiao & Qiankun Zhou, 2021. "Can a time-varying structure provide a more robust panel construction of counterfactuals-straitjacket or straitjackets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 113-129, January.
    13. Zhentao Shi & Jingyi Huang, 2019. "Forward-Selected Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation," Papers 1908.05894, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    14. Shi, Zhentao & Huang, Jingyi, 2023. "Forward-selected panel data approach for program evaluation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 512-535.
    15. Feng Liu & Yu Fu & Weiguo Wang, 2023. "Heterogeneous Effects of China’s Carbon Market on Carbon Emissions—Evidence from a Regression Control Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.

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