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Estimation Of Time‐Varying Adjusted Probability Of Informed Trading And Probability Of Symmetric Order‐Flow Shock

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  • Daniel Preve
  • Yiu‐Kuen Tse

Abstract

Recently Duarte and Young (2009) study the probability of informed trading (PIN) proposed by Easley et al.(2002) and decompose it into two parts: the adjusted PIN (APIN) as a measure of asymmetric information and the probability of symmetric order- ow shock (PSOS) as a measure of illiquidity. They provide some cross-section estimates of these measures using daily data over annual periods. In this paper we propose a method to estimate daily APIN and PSOS by extending the method in Tay et al. (2009) using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results show that while PIN is positively contemporaneously correlated with variance, APIN is not. On the other hand, PSOS is positively correlated with daily average e ective spread and variance, which is consistent with the interpretation of PSOS as a measure of illiquidity. Compared to APIN, PSOS exhibits clustering and sporadic bursts over time.
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  • Daniel Preve & Yiu‐Kuen Tse, 2013. "Estimation Of Time‐Varying Adjusted Probability Of Informed Trading And Probability Of Symmetric Order‐Flow Shock," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1138-1152, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:28:y:2013:i:7:p:1138-1152
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.2302
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    Cited by:

    1. Ping-Chen Tsai & Chi-Ming Tsai, 2021. "Estimating the proportion of informed and speculative traders in financial markets: evidence from exchange rate," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(3), pages 443-470, July.
    2. Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Andrada-Felix, Julián & Gómez-Déniz, Emilio, 2022. "Searching for informed traders in stock markets: The case of Banco Popular," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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