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Searching for informed traders in stock markets: The case of Banco Popular

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  • Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V.
  • Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón
  • Andrada-Felix, Julián
  • Gómez-Déniz, Emilio

Abstract

In this paper, we use several indicators of trade informativeness to search for informed traders on the final trading days of Banco Popular, the first and only bank resolution case to date in the euro area. In particular, we use the model proposed by Preve and Tse (2013) to estimate the adjusted daily probability of informed trading and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results indicate that upon the anticipation of a possible liquidation of the bank, informed investors reacted to the bad news by placing more weight on it and that Banco Popular experienced large increases in both buy- and sell-orders during the last days of trading when the bank registered a significant depletion of its deposit base. Moreover, we find evidence supporting the presence of inside trading and illiquidity, especially after speculation in the media that the bank could face a liquidation. Our study has important implications for market participants and regulatory authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Andrada-Felix, Julián & Gómez-Déniz, Emilio, 2022. "Searching for informed traders in stock markets: The case of Banco Popular," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:63:y:2022:i:c:s1062940822001292
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101791
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric information; Probability of informed trading; Probability of symmetric order-flow shocks; High-frequency data; Bank failure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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