IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/isacfm/v9y2000i1p23-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relevance of trends for predictions of stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Hellström
  • Kenneth Holmström

Abstract

Technical prediction of stock returns is notoriously extremely difficult. In this report we use the concept of trends as predictor variables. A statistical investigation of the trend concept is presented for stocks on the Swedish stock market. Trend variables are further used as input variables in a nearest‐neighbor analysis to find patterns of trend values that result in non‐random future returns. The nearest‐neighbors algorithm is extended by a selection procedure to find regions in the input space, where the future returns are asymmetrically distributed. The algorithm is applied to a number of international stock indexes and has positive results for some and negative for others. It also has other natural applications when the overall predictability is low, and can only be expected to apply in indeterminate regions of the input space. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Hellström & Kenneth Holmström, 2000. "The relevance of trends for predictions of stock returns," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 23-34, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:23-34
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1174(200003)9:13.0.CO;2-U
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1174(200003)9:13.0.CO;2-U
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1174(200003)9:13.0.CO;2-U?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, P M, 1987. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation in the Presence of Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 875-891, July.
    2. Blake LeBaron, "undated". "Persistence of the Dow Jones Index on Rising Volume," Working papers _006, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
    3. S. Yakowitz, 1987. "Nearest‐Neighbour Methods For Time Series Analysis," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 235-247, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Fotios Pasiouras & Charalambos Spathis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2007. "A comparison of nearest neighbours, discriminant and logit models for auditing decisions," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1‐2), pages 23-40, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Antoine Djogbenou & Christian Gouriéroux & Joann Jasiak & Paul Rilstone, 2022. "An Econometric Panel Data Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-3.
    3. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Optimal instruments (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 2, pages 61-69, March.
    4. Charlier, Erwin & Melenberg, Bertrand & van Soest, Arthur, 2000. "Estimation of a censored regression panel data model using conditional moment restrictions efficiently," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 25-56, March.
    5. Linton, Oliver, 1995. "Second Order Approximation in the Partially Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1079-1112, September.
    6. Daiji Kawaguchi & Yukitoshi Matsushita & Hisahiro Naito, 2017. "Moment Estimation of the Probit Model with an Endogenous Continuous Regressor," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 48-62, March.
    7. Hahn, Jinyong, 1997. "Efficient estimation of panel data models with sequential moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Fusari, Nicola & Todorov, Viktor & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2019. "Unified inference for nonlinear factor models from panels with fixed and large time span," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 4-25.
    9. Miller, Steve & Startz, Richard, 2019. "Feasible generalized least squares using support vector regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 28-31.
    10. Yoici Arai & Taisuke Otsu & Mengshan Xu, 2022. "GLS under monotone heteroskedasticity," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 625, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    11. Kausik Chaudhuri & Alok Kumar, 2015. "A Markov-Switching Model for Indian Stock Price and Volume," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(3), pages 239-257, December.
    12. Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2020. "Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    13. Linton, Oliver & Xiao, Zhijie, 2019. "Efficient estimation of nonparametric regression in the presence of dynamic heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 608-631.
    14. White, Halbert & Hong, Yongmiao, 1999. "M-Testing Using Finite and Infinite Dimensional Parameter Estimators," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qz123ng, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    15. Behnam Najafzadeh & Mohammadreza Monjazeb & Siab Mamipour, 2016. "The Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Exchange Return with PANEL-GARCH Approach (Case Study: D8 Countries)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(4), pages 525-550, Autumn.
    16. Inkmann, Joachim, 1997. "Circumventing multiple integration: A comparison of GMM and SML estimators for the panel probit model," Discussion Papers, Series II 339, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    17. Oliver Linton & Douglas Steigerwald, 2000. "Adaptive testing in arch models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 145-174.
    18. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    19. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224.
    20. Lin, Wen-Ling, 1995. "Market closure and predictability of intradaily stock returns in the United States and Japan," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 19-44, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:23-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1099-1174/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.