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The 2012 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Bubbles In Prices Of Exhaustible Resources

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  • Boyan Jovanovic

Abstract

This article proposes a test for the presence of a bubble in the price of an exhaustible resource. A bubble is accompanied by a rise in the storage‐to‐consumption ratio: Consumption peters out, and a fraction of the original stock is held forever. The test suggests there is a bubble in the price of oil and in the market for high‐end Bordeaux wines, but other explanations are also possible. A bubble reduces welfare regardless of whether there are other stores of value, particularly fiat money.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyan Jovanovic, 2013. "The 2012 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Bubbles In Prices Of Exhaustible Resources," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 1-34, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:54:y:2013:i:1:p:1-34
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12000
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    2. Spaenjers, Christophe & Goetzmann, William N. & Mamonova, Elena, 2015. "The economics of aesthetics and record prices for art since 1701," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 79-94.
    3. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    4. Sumudu W. Watugala, 2015. "Economic Uncertainty and Commodity Futures Volatility," Working Papers 15-14, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    5. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Faye, Benoît & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Analyzing the risks of an illiquid and global asset: The case of fine wine," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-25.
    6. Burda, Michael C., 2021. "Valuing cryptocurrencies: Three easy pieces," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-011, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    7. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    8. Dimson, Elroy & Rousseau, Peter L. & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2015. "The price of wine," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 431-449.
    9. Bassam Fattouh & Lavan Mahadeva, 2014. "Causes and Implications of Shifts in Financial Participation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 757-787, August.
    10. Vecco, Marilena & Zanola, Roberto, 2017. "Don’t let the easy be the enemy of the good. Returns from art investments: What is wrong with it?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 120-129.
    11. Sumudu W. Watugala, 2019. "Economic uncertainty, trading activity, and commodity futures volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 921-945, August.

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