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On the effect of uncertainty on personal vaccination decisions

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  • Christophe Courbage
  • Richard Peter

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of ambiguity on personal vaccination decisions. We first characterize the vaccination decision in the absence of ambiguity. We then show that uncertainty about the probability of side effects and the efficacy of the vaccine always reduces take‐up under ambiguity aversion. However, uncertainty about the underlying disease, being the probability of sickness or the probability of a severe course of disease, may either encourage or discourage vaccination. Our results are relevant for policy because reducing uncertainty associated with the vaccine always has the desired effect whereas reducing uncertainty associated with the disease may have unintended consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Courbage & Richard Peter, 2021. "On the effect of uncertainty on personal vaccination decisions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(11), pages 2937-2942, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:30:y:2021:i:11:p:2937-2942
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.4405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Lepinteur & Liyousew G. Borga & Andrew E. Clark & Claus Vögele & Conchita D’Ambrosio, 2023. "Risk aversion and COVID‐19 vaccine hesitancy," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 1659-1669, August.
    2. Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Marc Leandri, 2024. "Optimal self-protection and health risk perceptions: Exploring connections between risk theory and the Health Belief Model," Post-Print hal-04557076, HAL.
    3. Eger, Jens & Kaplan, Lennart & Sternberg, Henrike, 2022. "How to reduce vaccination hesitancy? The relevance of evidence and its communicator," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 433, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Olivier Renault, 2024. "Dynamic decision-making when ambiguity attitudes depend on exogenous events," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(2), pages 269-295, March.
    5. Yu Gao & Zhenxing Huang & Ning Liu & Jia Yang, 2024. "Are physicians rational under ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 183-203, April.
    6. Arthur E. Attema & Olivier L’haridon & Jose Luis Pinto Prades, 2022. "Editorial: Behavioral and experimental health economics," Post-Print hal-04074732, HAL.
    7. Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Marc Leandri, 2023. "Optimal self-protection and health risk perception: bridging the gap between risk theory and the Health Belief Model," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

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