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Fitting observed and theoretical choices – women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome

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  • Valerie Seror

Abstract

Choices regarding prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome – the most frequent chromosomal defect – are particularly relevant to decision analysis, since women's decisions are based on the assessment of their risk of carrying a child with Down syndrome, and involve tradeoffs (giving birth to an affected child vs procedure‐related miscarriage). The aim of this study, based on face‐to‐face interviews with 78 women aged 25–35 with prior experience of pregnancy, was to compare the women' expressed choices towards prenatal diagnosis with those derived from theoretical models of choice (expected utility theory, rank‐dependent theory, and cumulative prospect theory). The main finding obtained in this study was that the cumulative prospect model fitted the observed choices best: both subjective transformation of probabilities and loss aversion, which are basic features of the cumulative prospect model, have to be taken into account to make the observed choices consistent with the theoretical ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Valerie Seror, 2008. "Fitting observed and theoretical choices – women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 557-577, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:557-577
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1276
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    Cited by:

    1. Gajdos, Thibault & Garrouste, Clémentine & Geoffard, Pierre-Yves, 2016. "The subjective value of a life with Down syndrome: Evidence from amniocentesis decision," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 59-69.
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    3. Di Giacomo, Marina & Piacenza, Massimiliano & Siciliani, Luigi & Turati, Gilberto, 2022. "The effect of co-payments on the take-up of prenatal tests," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Hensher, David A., 2010. "Hypothetical bias, choice experiments and willingness to pay," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 735-752, July.
    5. Clémentine Garrouste & Jérôme Le & Eric Maurin, 2011. "The choice of detecting Down syndrome: does money matter?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(9), pages 1073-1089, September.

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