IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/finmar/v33y2024i2p91-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can financial uncertainty forecast aggregate stock market returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Ólan Henry
  • Semih Kerestecioglu
  • Sam Pybis

Abstract

We investigate the role of financial uncertainty in forecasting aggregate stock market returns. Our results suggest that financial uncertainty, along with its change, are more powerful predictors of excess US monthly stock market returns than 14 macroeconomic predictors commonly used in the literature. Financial uncertainty is shown to outperform short interest, which has been suggested to be the strongest known predictor of the equity risk premium. These results persist using robust econometric methods in‐sample, and when forecasting out‐of‐sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Ólan Henry & Semih Kerestecioglu & Sam Pybis, 2024. "Can financial uncertainty forecast aggregate stock market returns?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 91-111, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:finmar:v:33:y:2024:i:2:p:91-111
    DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12187
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12187
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/fmii.12187?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:finmar:v:33:y:2024:i:2:p:91-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.