IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/finmar/v25y2016i5p333-360.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Accurately Can Z‐score Predict Bank Failure?

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Chiaramonte
  • (Frank) Hong Liu
  • Federica Poli
  • Mingming Zhou

Abstract

Bank risk is not directly observable, so empirical research relies on indirect measures. We evaluate how well Z‐score, the widely used accounting‐based measure of bank distance to default, can predict bank failure. Using the U.S. commercial banks’ data from 2004 to 2012, we find that on average, Z‐score can predict 76% of bank failure, and additional set of other bank‐ and macro‐level variables do not increase this predictability level. We also find that the prediction power of Z‐score to predict bank default remains stable within the three‐year forward window.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Chiaramonte & (Frank) Hong Liu & Federica Poli & Mingming Zhou, 2016. "How Accurately Can Z‐score Predict Bank Failure?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 333-360, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:finmar:v:25:y:2016:i:5:p:333-360
    DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/fmii.12077
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/fmii.12077?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hong Liu & Phil Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson, 2013. "Competition And Stability In European Banking: A Regional Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(2), pages 176-201, March.
    2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    3. Akins, Brian & Li, Lynn & Ng, Jeffrey & Rusticus, Tjomme O., 2016. "Bank Competition and Financial Stability: Evidence from the Financial Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-28, February.
    4. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2013. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 452-490.
    5. DeYoung, Robert & Roland, Karin P., 2001. "Product Mix and Earnings Volatility at Commercial Banks: Evidence from a Degree of Total Leverage Model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 54-84, January.
    6. Allen N. Berger & Seth D. Bonime & Lawrence G. Goldberg & Lawrence J. White, 2004. "The Dynamics of Market Entry: The Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Entry in the Banking Industry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 797-834, October.
    7. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2011. "Too Many to Fail? Evidence of Regulatory Forbearance When the Banking Sector Is Weak," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1378-1405.
    8. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    10. Kevin Stiroh, 2004. "Do Community Banks Benefit from Diversification?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 135-160, April.
    11. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    12. Hannan, Timothy H & Hanweck, Gerald A, 1988. "Bank Insolvency Risk and the Market for Large Certificates of Deposit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 203-211, May.
    13. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc, 2012. "Bank valuation and accounting discretion during a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 614-634.
    14. Lammertjan Dam & Michael Koetter, 2012. "Bank Bailouts and Moral Hazard: Evidence from Germany," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(8), pages 2343-2380.
    15. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    16. Laura Chiaramonte & Federica Poli & Marco Ercole Oriani, 2015. "Are Cooperative Banks a Lever for Promoting Bank Stability? Evidence from the Recent Financial Crisis in OECD Countries," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 491-523, June.
    17. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2010. "Bank activity and funding strategies: The impact on risk and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 626-650, December.
    18. Erkens, David H. & Hung, Mingyi & Matos, Pedro, 2012. "Corporate governance in the 2007–2008 financial crisis: Evidence from financial institutions worldwide," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 389-411.
    19. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    20. Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J., 2011. "Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2811-2819, November.
    21. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiaramonte, Laura & Croci, Ettore & Poli, Federica, 2015. "Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 111-131.
    2. Bogdan Căpraru & Iulian Ihnatov & Nicoleta-Livia Pintilie, 2021. "Bank Competition And Risk-Taking In The European Union: Evidence Of A Non-Linear Relationship," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(230), pages 35-66, July – Se.
    3. Jeon, Bang Nam & Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: New consolidating evidence from emerging economies," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    4. Chiaramonte, Laura & Casu, Barbara, 2017. "Capital and liquidity ratios and financial distress. Evidence from the European banking industry," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 138-161.
    5. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Giovanni Ferri & Marco Savioli, 2022. "Regulatory reform and banking diversity: reassessing Basel 3," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 429-456, December.
    6. Saad Alsunbul & Basim Alzugaiby & Sajid Chaudhry & Rhada Boujlil, 2024. "The fatter the tail, the shorter the sail," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(1), pages 331-380, March.
    7. Ignatowski, Magdalena & Korte, Josef, 2014. "Wishful thinking or effective threat? Tightening bank resolution regimes and bank risk-taking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 264-281.
    8. Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    9. Ion Lapteacru, 2016. "Income and funding structures, banking regulation and bank risk-taking: The role of ownership in Central and Eastern European banks," Working Papers hal-01301825, HAL.
    10. Wang, Peiwen & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun, 2023. "Do peer effects matter in bank risk? Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Duran, Miguel A., 2022. "The risk–return relation in the corporate loan market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2019. "Auditor choice and bank risk taking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-52.
    14. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2017. "Is there a competition-stability trade-off in European banking?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 199-215.
    15. Sun, Junjie & Wu, Deming & Zhao, Xinlei, 2018. "Systematic risk factors and bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Molyneux, Phil, 2018. "Diversification and bank stability in the GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 17-43.
    17. Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar & Partal-Ureña, Antonio, 2019. "Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 223-240.
    18. Amanda, Citra, 2023. "Rural banking spatial competition and stability," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 492-504.
    19. Curi, Claudia & Lozano-Vivas, Ana, 2020. "Managerial ability as a tool for prudential regulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 87-107.
    20. Qiao, Lu & Fei, Junjun, 2022. "Government subsidies, enterprise operating efficiency, and “stiff but deathless” zombie firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:finmar:v:25:y:2016:i:5:p:333-360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.