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Credit Portfolio Loss Forecasts for Economic Downturns

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  • Daniel Rösch
  • Harald Scheule

Abstract

Recent studies find a positive correlation between default and loss given default rates of credit portfolios. In response, financial regulators require financial institutions to base their capital on ‘Downturn’ loss rates given default which are also known as Downturn LGDs. This article proposes a concept for the Downturn LGD which incorporates econometric properties of credit risk as well as the information content of default and loss given default models. The concept is compared to an alternative proposal by the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Insurance Corporation. An empirical analysis is provided for US American corporate bond portfolios of different credit quality, seniority and security.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2009. "Credit Portfolio Loss Forecasts for Economic Downturns," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:finmar:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:1-26
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0416.2008.00145.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Itkin & Fazlollah Soleymani, 2019. "Four-factor model of Quanto CDS with jumps-at-default and stochastic recovery," Papers 1912.08713, arXiv.org.
    2. Jiri Witzany, 2013. "Estimating Default and Recovery Rate Correlations," Working Papers IES 2013/03, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2013.
    3. Siemsen, Thomas & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2018. "On a quest for robustness: About model risk, randomness and discretion in credit risk stress tests," Discussion Papers 31/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Franco Varetto, 2017. "La correlazione tra PD ed LGD nell’analisi del rischio di credito/The correlation between probability of default and loss given default in the credit risk analysis," IRCrES Working Paper 201714, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY.
    5. repec:czx:journl:v:21:y:2014:i:33:id:210 is not listed on IDEAS

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