Spatially modeling the effects of meteorological drivers of PM2.5 in the Eastern United States via a local linear penalized quantile regression estimator

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses a significant risk to human health, with long‐term exposure being linked to conditions such as asthma, chronic bronchitis, lung cancer, and atherosclerosis. In order to improve the current pollution control strategies and to better shape public policy, the development of a more comprehensive understanding of this air pollutant is necessary. To this end, this work attempts to quantify the relationship between certain meteorological drivers and the levels of PM2.5. It is expected that the set of important meteorological drivers will vary both spatially and within the conditional distribution of PM2.5 levels. To account for these characteristics, a new local linear penalized quantile regression methodology is developed. The proposed estimator uniquely selects the set of important drivers at every spatial location and for each quantile of the conditional distribution of PM2.5 levels. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated through simulation, and it is then used to determine the association between several meteorological drivers and PM2.5 over the Eastern United States. This analysis suggests that the primary drivers throughout much of the Eastern United States tend to differ based on season and geographic location, with similarities existing between “typical” and “high” PM2.5 levels.