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Inference in Group Factor Models With an Application to Mixed‐Frequency Data

Author

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  • E. Andreou
  • P. Gagliardini
  • E. Ghysels
  • M. Rubin

Abstract

We derive asymptotic properties of estimators and test statistics to determine—in a grouped data setting—common versus group‐specific factors. Despite the fact that our test statistic for the number of common factors, under the null, involves a parameter at the boundary (related to unit canonical correlations), we derive a parameter‐free asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how the group factor setting applies to mixed‐frequency data. As an empirical illustration, we address the question whether Industrial Production (IP) is still the dominant factor driving the U.S. economy using a mixed‐frequency data panel of IP and non‐IP sectors. We find that a single common factor explains 89% of IP output growth and 61% of total GDP growth despite the diminishing role of manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Andreou & P. Gagliardini & E. Ghysels & M. Rubin, 2019. "Inference in Group Factor Models With an Application to Mixed‐Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1267-1305, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:87:y:2019:i:4:p:1267-1305
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA14690
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    Cited by:

    1. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    2. Alain-Philippe Fortin & Patrick Gagliardini & O. Scaillet, 2022. "Eigenvalue tests for the number of latent factors in short panels," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-81, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Patrick Gagliardini & Elisa Ossola & O. Scaillet, 2019. "Estimation of Large Dimensional Conditional Factor Models in Finance," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-46, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. In Choi & Rui Lin & Yongcheol Shin, 2020. "Online Appendix for Canonical Correlation-based Model Selection for the Multilevel Factors," Working Papers 2009, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    5. Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.
    6. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2021. "Predicting the VIX and the volatility risk premium: The role of short-run funding spreads Volatility Factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 366-398.
    7. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    8. Venetis, Ioannis & Ladas, Avgoustinos, 2022. "Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields," MPRA Paper 115801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gani Ramadani & Magdalena Petrovska & Vesna Bucevska, 2021. "Evaluation of mixed frequency approaches for tracking near-term economic developments in North Macedonia," Working Papers 2021-03, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    10. Choi, In & Lin, Rui & Shin, Yongcheol, 2023. "Canonical correlation-based model selection for the multilevel factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 22-44.
    11. Luke Mosley & Tak-Shing Chan & Alex Gibberd, 2023. "sparseDFM: An R Package to Estimate Dynamic Factor Models with Sparse Loadings," Papers 2303.14125, arXiv.org.
    12. Andres Algaba & David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Samuel Borms & Kris Boudt, 2020. "Econometrics Meets Sentiment: An Overview Of Methodology And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 512-547, July.
    13. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2019. "High-Dimensional Granger Causality Tests with an Application to VIX and News," Papers 1912.06307, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    14. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2021. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2102.11780, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    16. He, Yong & Kong, Xinbing & Trapani, Lorenzo & Yu, Long, 2023. "One-way or two-way factor model for matrix sequences?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1981-2004.
    17. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions," Papers 2301.10592, arXiv.org.
    18. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    19. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2024. "Identifying oil price shocks with global, developed, and emerging latent real economy activity factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-149, January.

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