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Accounting and the credibility of management forecasts

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  • RICHARD C. SANSING

Abstract

. This paper develops and analyzes a signaling model in which a firm discloses privately held information to investors via a forecast. The forecast is constrained by the extent to which the accounting system reflects the private information, and the extent to which estimates regarding the private information are available from other sources, such as financial analysts. The market assesses the credibility of the forecast in setting the price of the firm's stock. A partially separating equilibrium is presented. The implications of the equilibrium are consistent with empirical regularities concerning the market's reaction to management forecasts. In particular, a majority of management forecasts contain good news, forecasts containing bad news are more credible than forecasts containing good news, and stock price reactions are stronger for firms that are not followed by financial analysts. Analysis of investor returns suggests that although a more effective accounting system reduces the variance of returns, it also skews them to the left. Thus, the largest losses are from investments in firms with the most effective accounting systems. Résumé. L'auteur élabore et analyse un modèle indicateur dans lequel une entreprise communique aux investisseurs, par le truchement d'une prévision, l'information qu'elle détient à titre privilégiée. La prévision est sous contrainte dans la mesure où le système comptable reflète l'information privilégiée et les estimations relatives à l'information privilégiée peuvent être obtenues auprès d'autres sources, comme celle des analystes financiers. Le marché évalue la crédibilité de la prévision en fixant le cours de l'action de l'entreprise. L'auteur présente un équilibre partiellement intercalaire. Les conséquences de cet équilibre sont conformes à celles régulièrement observées dans les études empiriques relatives à la réaction du marché aux prévisions de la direction. On note en particulier que la majorité des prévisions de la direction renferment de l'information positive, que les prévisions qui renferment de l'information négative sont plus crédibles que les prévisions contenant de l'information positive et que les réactions touchant le cours de l'action sont plus fortes pour les entreprises qui ne sont pas suivies par des analystes financiers. L'analyse des rendements obtenus par les investisseurs laisse croire que même si un système comptable plus efficace réduit la variance des rendements, il les rend asymétriques vers la gauche. Les pertes les plus importantes sont donc liées aux investissements dans des entreprises ayant les systèmes comptables les plus efficaces.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard C. Sansing, 1992. "Accounting and the credibility of management forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 33-45, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:9:y:1992:i:1:p:33-45
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1992.tb00868.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jennings, R, 1987. "Unsystematic Security Price Movements, Management Earnings Forecasts, And Revisions In Consensus Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 90-110.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Han & Hun‐Tong Tan, 2010. "Investors' Reactions to Management Earnings Guidance: The Joint Effect of Investment Position, News Valence, and Guidance Form," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 81-104, March.
    2. Konrad Lang, 2018. "Voluntary Disclosure and Analyst Forecast," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 23-36, January.
    3. Evelyn Korn, 2006. "The Information Content of Mandatory Disclosures," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200601, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Bertomeu, Jeremy, 2023. "Managers’ choice of disclosure complexity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2).
    5. Shota Otomasa & Atsushi Shiiba & Akinobu Shuto, 2015. "Management Earnings Forecasts as a Performance Target in Executive Compensation Contracts," CARF F-Series CARF-F-368, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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