IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaecon/v65y2018i1p1-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements

Author

Listed:
  • Bozanic, Zahn
  • Roulstone, Darren T.
  • Van Buskirk, Andrew

Abstract

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms’ disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS. We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher. Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms’ voluntary disclosures.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozanic, Zahn & Roulstone, Darren T. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2018. "Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 1-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:65:y:2018:i:1:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2017.11.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410117300733
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jacceco.2017.11.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2013. "Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-65.
    2. Skinner, Dj, 1994. "Why Firms Voluntarily Disclose Bad-News," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 38-60.
    3. Bamber, LS & Cheon, YS, 1998. "Discretionary management earnings forecast disclosures: Antecedents and outcomes associated with forecast venue and forecast specificity choices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 167-190.
    4. Stephan Hollander & Maarten Pronk & Erik Roelofsen, 2010. "Does Silence Speak? An Empirical Analysis of Disclosure Choices During Conference Calls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 531-563, June.
    5. Patell, Jm, 1976. "Corporate Forecasts Of Earnings Per Share And Stock-Price Behavior - Empirical Tests," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 246-276.
    6. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    7. Jennings, R, 1987. "Unsystematic Security Price Movements, Management Earnings Forecasts, And Revisions In Consensus Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 90-110.
    8. Hung-Yuan Richard Lu & Jennifer Wu Tucker, 2012. "Nonearnings Corporate Guidance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 947-977, December.
    9. Amy P. Hutton & Gregory S. Miller & Douglas J. Skinner, 2003. "The Role of Supplementary Statements with Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 867-890, December.
    10. Waymire, G, 1985. "Earnings Volatility And Voluntary Management Forecast Disclosure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 268-295.
    11. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    12. Julie Cotter & Irem Tuna & Peter D. Wysocki, 2006. "Expectations Management and Beatable Targets: How Do Analysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 593-624, September.
    13. Bipin Ajinkya & Sanjeev Bhojraj & Partha Sengupta, 2005. "The Association between Outside Directors, Institutional Investors and the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 343-376, June.
    14. Chuk, Elizabeth & Matsumoto, Dawn & Miller, Gregory S., 2013. "Assessing methods of identifying management forecasts: CIG vs. researcher collected," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 23-42.
    15. Charles E. Wasley & Joanna Shuang Wu, 2006. "Why Do Managers Voluntarily Issue Cash Flow Forecasts?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 389-429, May.
    16. Shuping Chen & Xia Chen & Qiang Cheng, 2008. "Do Family Firms Provide More or Less Voluntary Disclosure?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 499-536, June.
    17. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2009. "Shareholder litigation and changes in disclosure behavior," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1-2), pages 136-156, March.
    18. Chen, Shuping & Matsumoto, Dawn & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2011. "Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 134-150, February.
    19. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    20. Patell, Jm & Wolfson, Ma, 1981. "The Ex Ante And Ex Post Price Effects Of Quarterly Earnings Announcements Reflected In Option And Stock-Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 434-458.
    21. Chen, Shuping & Matsumoto, Dawn & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2011. "Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 134-150.
    22. Volkan Muslu & Suresh Radhakrishnan & K. R. Subramanyam & Dongkuk Lim, 2015. "Forward-Looking MD&A Disclosures and the Information Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 931-948, May.
    23. Billings, Mary Brooke & Jennings, Robert & Lev, Baruch, 2015. "On guidance and volatility," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 161-180.
    24. Coller, M & Yohn, TL, 1997. "Management forecasts and information asymmetry: An examination of bid-ask spreads," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 181-191.
    25. Waymire, G, 1984. "Additional Evidence On The Information-Content Of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 703-718.
    26. Billings, Mary Brooke & Cedergren, Matthew C., 2015. "Strategic silence, insider selling and litigation risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 119-142.
    27. Penman, Sh, 1980. "An Empirical-Investigation Of The Voluntary Disclosure Of Corporate-Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 132-160.
    28. Irene Karamanou & Nikos Vafeas, 2005. "The Association between Corporate Boards, Audit Committees, and Management Earnings Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 453-486, June.
    29. Ajinkya, Bb & Gift, Mj, 1984. "Corporate Managers Earnings Forecasts And Symmetrical Adjustments Of Market Expectations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 425-444.
    30. Han, Jcy & Wild, Jj, 1991. "Stock-Price Behavior Associated With Managers Earnings And Revenue Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 79-95.
    31. Feng Li, 2010. "The Information Content of Forward‐Looking Statements in Corporate Filings—A Naïve Bayesian Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 1049-1102, December.
    32. Field, Laura & Lowry, Michelle & Shu, Susan, 2005. "Does disclosure deter or trigger litigation?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 487-507, September.
    33. Yang, Holly I., 2012. "Capital market consequences of managers' voluntary disclosure styles," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 167-184.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yinghua Li & Liandong Zhang, 2015. "Short Selling Pressure, Stock Price Behavior, and Management Forecast Precision: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 79-117, March.
    2. Thomas Bourveau & Yun Lou & Rencheng Wang, 2018. "Shareholder Litigation and Corporate Disclosure: Evidence from Derivative Lawsuits," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 797-842, June.
    3. Hurwitz, Helen, 2017. "The understatement of large negative earnings news in managers’ annual guidance," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-133.
    4. Thorsten Knauer & Christian Ledwig & Andreas Wömpener, 2012. "Zur Wertrelevanz freiwilliger Managementprognosen in Deutschland," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 166-204, March.
    5. Liao, Chih-Hsien & San, Ziyao & Tsang, Albert, 2024. "Corporate governance reforms and voluntary disclosure: International evidence on management earnings forecasts," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Albert Tsang & Yi Xiang & Miao Yu, 2023. "Cross‐border regulatory enforcement and corporate voluntary disclosure," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3-4), pages 482-523, March.
    7. Kristian D. Allee & Theodore E. Christensen & Bryan S. Graden & Kenneth J. Merkley, 2021. "The Genesis of Voluntary Disclosure: An Analysis of Firms’ First Earnings Guidance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1914-1938, March.
    8. Billings, Mary Brooke & Jennings, Robert & Lev, Baruch, 2015. "On guidance and volatility," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 161-180.
    9. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2013. "Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-65.
    10. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    11. Hart, Matthew, 2018. "How informative is qualitative management earnings guidance?," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 59-73.
    12. Imhof, Michael J & Seavey, Scott E., 2018. "How investors value cash and cash flows when managers commit to providing earnings forecasts," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 74-87.
    13. Jae B. Kim, 2016. "Accounting flexibility and managers’ forecast behavior prior to seasoned equity offerings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1361-1400, December.
    14. Chuk, Elizabeth & Matsumoto, Dawn & Miller, Gregory S., 2013. "Assessing methods of identifying management forecasts: CIG vs. researcher collected," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 23-42.
    15. Lin, K.C., 2017. "Quality concerns over managers' quarterly earnings guidance," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 113-125.
    16. Ertimur, Yonca & Sletten, Ewa & Sunder, Jayanthi, 2014. "Large shareholders and disclosure strategies: Evidence from IPO lockup expirations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 79-95.
    17. Agapova, Anna & Madura, Jeff, 2016. "Market uncertainty and earnings guidance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-111.
    18. David A. Maslar & Matthew Serfling & Sarah Shaikh, 2021. "Economic Downturns and the Informativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1520, September.
    19. Francois Brochet & Lucile Faurel & Sarah Mcvay, 2011. "Manager‐Specific Effects on Earnings Guidance: An Analysis of Top Executive Turnovers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 1123-1162, December.
    20. Guojin Gong & Laura Y. Li & Jeff J. Wang, 2011. "Serial Correlation in Management Earnings Forecast Errors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 677-720, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:65:y:2018:i:1:p:1-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.