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Stock returns and real activity in an inflationary environment: The informational impact of FAS No. 33

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  • JOHN S. BILDERSEE
  • JOSHUA RONEN

Abstract

. This paper empirically assesses the degree to which current cost data as required by Financial Accounting Standards Statement No. 33 might implicitly be used by equity market participants. Studies to date, focusing on income measures, documented little or no effect of the data on prices. We argue here that income was the wrong focus. Instead, because current costs can be used to construct quantity indexes and hence measure real productive growth of the firm, the focus should be on the test of association between real productivity (obtained by use of current cost data) and stock returns rather than between income measures and stock returns. Therefore, this paper tests for whether growth measure (of real productive output) which can be obtained by utilizing current cost information and which cannot be obtained without such information, can explain cross†sectional variation in security returns beyond measures based on historical costs. Returns should be more highly associated with current cost based measures of real productive growth than with similar measures based on historical cost, if the current cost data have value. Like the time†series macroeconomic analysis done by Fama (1981), our cross†sectional microeconomic analysis relying on current cost accounting data suggests that security returns are positively related to real productive activity. Moreover, the tests seem to suggest that current cost data, on the margin, reflect productive activity information that may not be already contained in historical cost accounting data. Résumé. Cet article évalue de façon empirique jusqu'à quel point les données au coût actuel requises en vertu de l'énoncé no. 33 (Financial Accounting Standards Statement No. 33) pourraient implicitement être utilisées par les participants au marché des actions. Les études antérieures, portant sur des mesures de bénéfice, ont conclu à peu ou pas d'effet sur les cours imputable à ces données. Nous soutenons ici que le bénéfice ne constituait pas le bon centre d'intérêt. Au lieu de cela, du fait que les coûts actuels peuvent être utilisés afin d'élaborer des indices de quantité et, de là , mesurer la croissance de la productivité réelle de la firme, le centre d'intérêt devrait plutôt tourner autour d'un test du lien entre la productivité réelle (obtenue par l'utilisation des données au coût actuel) et les rendements des actions plutôt qu'entre des mesures de bénéfice et le rendement des actions. Dès lors, cet article examine si une mesure de croissance (de la productivité réelle) pouvant être obtenue à partir de l'information au coût actuel et qui ne peut être dégagée sans une telle information, peut expliquer davantage les variations (en coupe transversale) des rendements des titres que ne le font des mesures fondées sur les coûts d'origine. La relation entre les rendements et les mesures de productivité réelle fondées sur le coût actuel devrait être plus robuste que celle entre des mesures similaires fondées sur le coût d'origine, si tant est que les données au coût actuel présentent une valeur. À l'instar de l'analyse macroéconomique de séries chronologiques effectuée par Fama (1981), notre analyse microéconomique en coupe transversale fondée sur des données au coût actuel semble indiquer que les rendements des titres sont reliés positivement à l'activité productive réelle. En outre, les tests laissent supposer qu'à la marge, les données au coût actuel reflètent une information d'activité productive qui, actuellement, pourrait ne pas être véhiculée par les données comptables exprimées au coût d'origine.

Suggested Citation

  • John S. Bildersee & Joshua Ronen, 1987. "Stock returns and real activity in an inflationary environment: The informational impact of FAS No. 33," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), pages 89-110, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:4:y:1987:i:1:p:89-110
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1987.tb00657.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
    2. Patell, Jm, 1976. "Corporate Forecasts Of Earnings Per Share And Stock-Price Behavior - Empirical Tests," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 246-276.
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    7. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-486, June.
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    11. Christie, Andrew A. & Kennelley, Michael D. & William King, J. & Schaefer, Thomas F., 1984. "Testing for incremental information content in the presence of collinearity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 205-217, December.
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    1. Heibatollah Sami & Anthony P. Curatola & Jerry E. Trapnell, 1989. "Evidence on the predictive ability of inflation†adjusted earnings measures," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 556-574, March.
    2. Kirkulak, Berna & Balsari, Cagnur Kaytmaz, 2009. "Value Relevance of Inflation-adjusted Equity and Income," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 363-377, December.

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