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Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub‐Saharan Africa

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  • Kenneth A. Schultz
  • Justin S. Mankin

Abstract

Research into the effects of climate on political and economic outcomes assumes that short‐term variation in weather is exogenous to the phenomena being studied. However, weather data are derived from stations operated by national governments, whose political capacity and stability affect the quality and continuity of coverage. We show that civil conflict risk in sub‐Saharan Africa is negatively correlated with the number and density of weather stations contributing to a country's temperature record. This effect is both cross‐sectional—countries with higher average conflict risk tend to have poorer coverage—and cross‐temporal—civil conflict leads to loss of weather stations. Poor coverage induces a small downward bias in one widely used temperature data set, due to its interpolation method, and increases measurement error, potentially attenuating estimates of the temperature–conflict relationship. Combining multiple observational data sets to reduce measurement error almost doubles the estimated effect of temperature anomalies on civil conflict risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth A. Schultz & Justin S. Mankin, 2019. "Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub‐Saharan Africa," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(4), pages 723-739, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:63:y:2019:i:4:p:723-739
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12425
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia C. Morse & Bridget Coggins, 2024. "Your silence speaks volumes: Weak states and strategic absence in the UN General Assembly," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 515-544, September.
    2. Naveen Kumar & Dibyendu Maiti, 2024. "The Dynamic Causal Impact of Climate Change on Economic Activity - A Disaggregated Panel Analysis of India," Working papers 345, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Kikuta,Kyosuke, 2022. "Rainy Friday: religious participation and protests," IDE Discussion Papers 859, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. K. Mukherjee & B. Ouattara, 2021. "Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Kikuta,Kyosuke, 2022. "The drowning-out effect: voter turnout, uncertainty, and protests," IDE Discussion Papers 867, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. Jonah M Rexer, 2022. "The Brides of Boko Haram: Economic Shocks, Marriage Practices, and Insurgency in Nigeria," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1927-1977.
    7. Elizabeth A. Mack & Richard A. Marcantonio & Erin Bunting & Amanda Ross & Andrew Zimmer & Leo C. Zulu & Edna Liliana Gómez Fernández & Jay Herndon & Geoffrey M. Henebry, 2022. "A Systematic Literature Review of Quantitative Studies Assessing the Relationship between Water and Conflict on the African Continent," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Christensen, Peter & Osman, Adam & Stocker, Abigail, 2024. "Weathering the ride: Experimental evidence on transport pricing, climate extremes, and future travel demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Meierrieks, Daniel, 2021. "Weather shocks, climate change and human health," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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