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Inferring Roll‐Call Scores from Campaign Contributions Using Supervised Machine Learning

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  • Adam Bonica

Abstract

This article develops a generalized supervised learning methodology for inferring roll‐call scores from campaign contribution data. Rather than use unsupervised methods to recover a latent dimension that best explains patterns in giving, donation patterns are instead mapped onto a target measure of legislative voting behavior. Supervised models significantly outperform alternative measures of ideology in predicting legislative voting behavior. Fundraising prior to entering office provides a highly informative signal about future voting behavior. Impressively, forecasts based on fundraising as a nonincumbent predict future voting behavior as accurately as in‐sample forecasts based on votes cast during a legislator's first 2 years in Congress. The combined results demonstrate campaign contributions are powerful predictors of roll‐call voting behavior and resolve an ongoing debate as to whether contribution data successfully distinguish between members of the same party.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Bonica, 2018. "Inferring Roll‐Call Scores from Campaign Contributions Using Supervised Machine Learning," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 830-848, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:62:y:2018:i:4:p:830-848
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12376
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    Cited by:

    1. Caroline Le Pennec, 2024. "Strategic Campaign Communication: Evidence from 30,000 Candidate Manifestos," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(658), pages 785-810.
    2. Schönenberger, Felix, 2023. "Strategic Policy Responsiveness to Opponent Platforms: Evidence From U.S. House Incumbents Running Against Moderate or Extremist Challengers," MPRA Paper 120160, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Spruk, Rok & Kovac, Mitja, 2019. "Replicating and extending Martin-Quinn scores," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Miklos Sebők & Zoltán Kacsuk & Ákos Máté, 2022. "The (real) need for a human touch: testing a human–machine hybrid topic classification workflow on a New York Times corpus," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3621-3643, October.

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