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Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion

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  • J. Eric Oliver
  • Thomas J. Wood

Abstract

Although conspiracy theories have long been a staple of American political culture, no research has systematically examined the nature of their support in the mass public. Using four nationally representative surveys, sampled between 2006 and 2011, we find that half of the American public consistently endorses at least one conspiracy theory and that many popular conspiracy theories are differentiated along ideological and anomic dimensions. In contrast with many theoretical speculations, we do not find conspiracism to be a product of greater authoritarianism, ignorance, or political conservatism. Rather, the likelihood of supporting conspiracy theories is strongly predicted by a willingness to believe in other unseen, intentional forces and an attraction to Manichean narratives. These findings both demonstrate the widespread allure of conspiracy theories as political explanations and offer new perspectives on the forces that shape mass opinion and American political culture.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Eric Oliver & Thomas J. Wood, 2014. "Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(4), pages 952-966, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:58:y:2014:i:4:p:952-966
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12084
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    1. Roland Imhoff & Felix Zimmer & Olivier Klein & João H. C. António & Maria Babinska & Adrian Bangerter & Michal Bilewicz & Nebojša Blanuša & Kosta Bovan & Rumena Bužarovska & Aleksandra Cichocka & Sylv, 2022. "Conspiracy mentality and political orientation across 26 countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 392-403, March.
    2. Adam Brzezinski & Valentin Kecht & David Dijcke & Austin L. Wright, 2021. "Science skepticism reduced compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies in the United States," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 1519-1527, November.
    3. Shadi Shahsavari & Pavan Holur & Tianyi Wang & Timothy R. Tangherlini & Vwani Roychowdhury, 2020. "Conspiracy in the time of corona: automatic detection of emerging COVID-19 conspiracy theories in social media and the news," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 279-317, November.
    4. Mohammad Atari & Reza Afhami & Viren Swami, 2019. "Psychometric assessments of Persian translations of three measures of conspiracist beliefs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Serhan Cevik, 2024. "How Mumbo-Jumbo conquered the world: empirical analysis of conspiracy theories," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Bernd Schlipphak & Mujtaba Isani & Mitja D. Back, 2022. "Conspiracy Theory Beliefs and Political Trust: The Moderating Role of Political Communication," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(4), pages 157-167.
    7. Kenneth Graham Drinkwater & Neil Dagnall & Andrew Denovan & Nick Neave, 2020. "Psychometric assessment of the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Jessica Dawson, 2019. "Shall not be infringed: how the NRA used religious language to transform the meaning of the Second Amendment," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Alexander Libman & Björn Vollan, 2019. "Anti-Western Conspiracy Thinking in China and Russia: Empirical Evidence and its Link to Expectations of Collusion," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 135-163, December.
    11. Libman, Alexander & Vollan, Björn, 2015. "Anti-Western conspiracy thinking and expectations of collusion: Evidence from Russia and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Alexander Yendell & David Herbert, 2022. "Religion, Conspiracy Thinking, and the Rejection of Democracy: Evidence From the UK," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(4), pages 229-242.
    13. Edson C. Tandoc Jr. & Ryan J. Thomas & Lauren Bishop, 2021. "What Is (Fake) News? Analyzing News Values (and More) in Fake Stories," Media and Communication, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(1), pages 110-119.
    14. J. Eric Oliver & Wendy M. Rahn, 2016. "Rise of the Trumpenvolk," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 667(1), pages 189-206, September.

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