How Mumbo-Jumbo conquered the world: empirical analysis of conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories are everywhere, spreading like infectious diseases within and across countries. The rise of conspiracy-mongers is not just a nuisance, but a serious threat to political and economic stability. This paper provides an empirical analysis of cross-country differences in economic, institutional, and political factors attracting people to conspiracy theories, using nationally representative surveys conducted in 27 advanced and developing countries over the period 2018–2021. I find that conspiratorial thinking is more common in countries with lower level of income and higher levels of unemployment and income inequality. However, the most important socioeconomic factor in determining the popularity of conspiracy theories is educational attainments. Conspiratorial mentality is far more prevalent in countries with lower levels of tertiary education. I also find that institutions—as measured by bureaucratic quality and corruption—are important in drawing people away and to conspiracy theories. Finally, while internal conflict and tensions are not concomitant to conspiracy ideation, external conflict and the risk of terrorism are positively associated with the popularity of conspiratorial attitudes across countries.