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Elections and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes

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  • Daniela Donno

Abstract

When do elections in authoritarian regimes lead to democracy? Building from the distinction between competitive and hegemonic authoritarian regimes, I argue that presence of relatively weaker incumbents renders competitive authoritarian elections more prone to democratization, but only when domestic and international actors choose to actively pressure the regime. The effects of two forms of pressure—opposition electoral coalitions and international conditionality—are theorized. Propositions are tested using a comprehensive dataset of elections in authoritarian regimes from 1990 to 2007. Results support two core claims: that the effect of electoral pressure is conditional on the type of authoritarianism and that this greater vulnerability to pressure is the reason why competitive authoritarian elections are more likely to lead to democracy. In contrast, several alternative explanations—that differences across regime type are explained by alternation in power, better electoral conduct, or ongoing processes of liberalization—are not supported by the evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Donno, 2013. "Elections and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 703-716, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:57:y:2013:i:3:p:703-716
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12013
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Nam Kyu & Kroeger, Alex, 2017. "Rewarding the introduction of multiparty elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 164-181.
    2. Hao Hong & Tsz-Ning Wong, 2020. "Authoritarian election as an incentive scheme," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(3), pages 460-493, July.
    3. Hanne Fjelde & Kristine Höglund, 2022. "Introducing the Deadly Electoral Conflict Dataset (DECO)," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(1), pages 162-185, January.
    4. Jonathan Kropko & Robert Kubinec, 2020. "Interpretation and identification of within-unit and cross-sectional variation in panel data models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-22, April.
    5. Yamlaksira S. Getachew & Roger Fon & Elie Chrysostome, 2023. "On the location choices of African multinational enterprises: Do supranational economic institutions matter?," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(4), pages 453-490, December.
    6. Kirill Chmel & Alexander Demin & Kirill Kazantcev, 2017. "Dictators’ Behavior Under Conditions of Economic Sanctions Cumulative Effect," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Cameron Ross, 2018. "Regional elections in Russia: instruments of authoritarian legitimacy or instability?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Cottiero, Christina & Hafner-Burton, Emily & Haggard, Stephan & Prather, Lauren & Schneider, Christina J, 2024. "Illiberal Regimes and International Organizations," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt2bx6b98g, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    9. González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2018. "Can television bring down a dictator? Evidence from Chile’s “No” campaign," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 349-361.
    10. Schlumberger, Oliver, 2021. "Puzzles of political change in the Middle East: Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

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