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Exit, Voice, and Cyclicality: A Micrologic of Midterm Effects in European Parliament Elections

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  • Till Weber

Abstract

Very few theories of democratic elections can claim to overarch the field. One of them that has not been given due regard, I suggest, is Albert Hirschman's Exit, Voice, and Loyalty. I aim to exploit the integrative capacity of this general framework in a model of typical “midterm” effects occurring through the electoral cycle. The model unites such diverse phenomena as antigovernment swings, declining turnout, protest voting, conversion, and alienation. An empirical test with comparative survey data from elections to the European Parliament reveals that the role of strategic voting in the form of voice is limited. Instead, processes of de‐ and realignment in the form of exit dominate a picture of European Parliament elections beyond the widespread conception of “second‐order” irrelevance. More generally, the “cyclical” view on voting behavior suggests systematic links between short‐run midterm effects and long‐run electoral change.

Suggested Citation

  • Till Weber, 2011. "Exit, Voice, and Cyclicality: A Micrologic of Midterm Effects in European Parliament Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 907-922, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:55:y:2011:i:4:p:907-922
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00535.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Bojar, 2016. "The Electoral Advantage of the Left in Times of Fiscal Adjustment," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 103, European Institute, LSE.
    2. Hermann Schmitt & Alberto Sanz & Daniela Braun & Eftichia Teperoglou, 2020. "It All Happens at Once: Understanding Electoral Behaviour in Second-Order Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 6-18.
    3. Daniela Braun & Markus Tausendpfund, 2020. "Electoral Behaviour in a European Union under Stress," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 28-40.
    4. Hermann Schmitt & Ilke Toygür, 2016. "European Parliament Elections of May 2014: Driven by National Politics or EU Policy Making?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 167-181.
    5. Lars Hornuf & Marc Oliver Rieger & Sven A. Hartmann, 2023. "Can television reduce xenophobia? The case of East Germany," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(1), pages 77-100, February.
    6. Nicholas Clark, 2015. "The Federalist Perspective in Elections to the European Parliament," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 524-541, May.

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