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A Decision Theoretic Model of Public Opinion: Guns, Butter, and European Common Defense

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  • Clifford J. Carrubba
  • Anand Singh

Abstract

Why do individuals support the public policies they do? We argue that individuals can have quite sophisticated policy preferences and that not correctly modeling those preferences can lead to critically misspecified empirical models. To substantiate this position we derive and test a decision‐theoretic model that relies upon three critical assumptions: (1) policies affect the provision of multiple goods about which individuals care; (2) individuals have diminishing returns to scale in those goods; and (3) preferences over at least some subset of those goods are correlated. Using this model, we demonstrate that arbitrarily small secondary policy effects can confound predictions over primary policy effects. Thus, not considering even arbitrarily small policy effects can cause one to conclude that evidence is consistent with one's theory when in fact it is inconsistent or vice versa. Testing this theory on support for forming a European common defense, we find evidence consistent with our model.

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  • Clifford J. Carrubba & Anand Singh, 2004. "A Decision Theoretic Model of Public Opinion: Guns, Butter, and European Common Defense," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 218-231, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:48:y:2004:i:2:p:218-231
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00066.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiratli, Osman Sabri, 2015. "The role of identity in support for supranational integration in EU Foreign and Security Policies," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 19, February.
    2. Harald Schoen, 2008. "Identity, Instrumental Self-Interest and Institutional Evaluations," European Union Politics, , vol. 9(1), pages 5-29, March.
    3. Joshua C Fjelstul, 2022. "Explaining public opinion on the enforcement of the Stability and Growth Pact during the European sovereign debt crisis," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(2), pages 192-211, June.
    4. L. Lambertini, 2006. "Is America Unrivaled? A Repeated Game Analysis," Working Papers 563, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Hae-Won Jun, 2009. "The European Public's Decision on the War in Iraq: Differences among the EU Member States," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 45-63, March.
    6. Claes H. De Vreese & Anna Kandyla, 2009. "News Framing and Public Support for a Common Foreign and Security Policy," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 453-481, June.
    7. Martin Moland, 2024. "Past Political Asymmetry and Present Public Opinion: How Has the Asymmetrical Federation of the EU Shaped Popular Opinion of Its Optimal Shape?," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 54(2), pages 361-385.
    8. Robert F. Durant & Jerome S. Legge Jr, 2005. "Public Opinion, Risk Perceptions, and Genetically Modified Food Regulatory Policy," European Union Politics, , vol. 6(2), pages 181-200, June.
    9. Terrence L. Chapman & Dan Reiter, 2004. "The United Nations Security Council and the Rally ’Round the Flag Effect," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(6), pages 886-909, December.

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