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Bestimmung einer Konjunkturampel für Österreich auf Basis des WIFO-Konjunkturtests

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  • Christian Glocker

    (WIFO)

  • Werner Hölzl

Abstract

Der WIFO-Konjunkturtest ist ein wichtiges System von Frühindikatoren für die österreichische Konjunktur. Mit einem Markov-Regime-Switching-Modell kann der Konjunkturverlauf anhand dieser Indikatoren frühzeitig in Auf- und Abschwungregime klassifiziert werden. Die Regimewahrscheinlichkeiten können in Form einer Konjunkturampel dargestellt werden und bieten zusätzliche Information zur Interpretation der Konjunkturtestergebnisse.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2015. "Bestimmung einer Konjunkturampel für Österreich auf Basis des WIFO-Konjunkturtests," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(3), pages 175-183, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2015:i:3:p:175-183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Werner Hölzl & Julia Bachtrögler-Unger & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Vierte COVID-19-Welle dämpft Konjunktureinschätzungen. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Jänner 2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(2), pages 83-93, February.
    2. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Konjunktureinschätzungen verbessern sich weiter, Lieferengpässe und Arbeitskräftemangel hemmen die Produktion. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Juli 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(8), pages 587-595, August.
    3. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Konjunktureinschätzungen verbessern sich trotz erhöhter Unsicherheit. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(5), pages 301-311, May.
    4. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2020. "Konjunktureinschätzung stürzt infolge der COVID-19-Pandemie ab. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(5), pages 337-345, May.
    5. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2024. "Business Cycle Sentiment Subdued at Start of the Year. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2024," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 3, February.
    6. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Heterogene Entwicklung der Konjunkturbeurteilungen. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(5), pages 307-317, May.
    7. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Abschwung setzt sich fort. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(11), pages 721-731, November.
    8. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Zweite COVID-19-Welle bestimmt Konjunkturbeurteilung der Unternehmen. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Jänner 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(2), pages 105-114, February.
    9. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Economic Sentiment Continues to Brighten, Supply Bottlenecks and Labour Shortages Hamper Production. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of July 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 10, August.
    10. Werner Hölzl & Julia Bachtrögler-Unger & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Fourth COVID-19 Wave Dampens Economic Sentiment. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 4, February.
    11. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Economic Assessments of Austrian Companies in the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 4, February.
    12. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Heterogeneous Development of Economic Assessments. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of April 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 9, June.
    13. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2020. "Konjunktureinschätzung bleibt über Sektoren hinweg uneinheitlich. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Jänner 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(2), pages 89-99, February.
    14. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Slight Improvement in Economic Sentiment at the Beginning of the Year. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 3, February.
    15. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Economic Expectations Weaken. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of July 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 11, August.
    16. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Labour Shortages and Supply Bottlenecks Hamper Business Activity. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 14, November.
    17. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Konjunkturerwartungen verschlechtern sich. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Juli 2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(8), pages 505-515, August.
    18. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Konjunkturabschwung hält an. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(11), pages 753-763, November.
    19. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Geschäftstätigkeit durch Arbeitskräftemangel und Lieferengpässe beeinträchtigt. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(11), pages 793-802, November.
    20. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2019. "Konjunktur schwächt sich weiter ab. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(11), pages 807-819, November.
    21. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Economic Downturn Continues. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 18, December.
    22. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Leichte Verbesserung der Konjunktureinschätzungen zu Jahresbeginn. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Jänner 2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(2), pages 87-97, February.
    23. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Downturn Continues. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 17, November.
    24. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Konjunktureinschätzungen verbessern sich, Lieferengpässe hemmen die Produktion. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(5), pages 361-370, May.

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