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Aktienmärkte dämpfen das Wachstum in den USA. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2006

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft wird bis 2006 etwas rascher wachsen als in der Periode 1995/2001. Der Welthandel dürfte um 7,2% pro Jahr zunehmen, das BIP um 3,8%. Das mittelfristige Wachstumstempo verlangsamt sich in den USA auf 2,9%, ist aber weiterhin höher als in der EU (2,4%) und in Japan (1,2%). Insgesamt dürfte die Wirtschaft in den Industrieländern bis 2006 um 2,5% pro Jahr expandieren. Deutlich höher wird die Rate in den erdölexportierenden Ländern (+4,1%), in den sonstigen Entwicklungsländern (+5,4%) und in den früheren Planwirtschaften Osteuropas (+3,7%) ausfallen. Die Prognose geht davon aus, dass die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in den USA stark expansiv bleibt, dass niedrige Dollarzinsen und ein Rückgang des Dollarkurses neue Schuldenkrisen von Entwicklungsländern verhindern und dass sich die Kursverluste an den Aktienbörsen nicht fortsetzen.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2002. "Aktienmärkte dämpfen das Wachstum in den USA. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2006," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 75(8), pages 513-524, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2002:i:8:p:513-524
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