IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/wirtsc/v104y2024i9p651-654n1017.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Die deutsche Konjunktur seit 2020 und die strukturelle Schwäche der Industrie

Author

Listed:
  • Hohlfeld Peter
  • Theobald Thomas

Abstract

The German economy has been suffering from multiple crises in recent years. This is regularly reflected in the outcome of leading economic indicators, such as the monthly “IMK Konjunkturindikator”. Structural developments are difficult to identify in such an environment. However, the German economy’s dominant “business model” for much of the 2000s, which consisted of strong export-led growth, appears to have come under pressure not only in the automotive industry. Rather, competition from China is also being felt in large parts of the machine building and electrical industries. Without a significant increase in public investment in Germany and a consistent European industrial policy, there is little hope that the secondary sector will be able to provide an economic stimulus to overcome the current stagnation in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Hohlfeld Peter & Theobald Thomas, 2024. "Die deutsche Konjunktur seit 2020 und die strukturelle Schwäche der Industrie," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(9), pages 651-654.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:wirtsc:v:104:y:2024:i:9:p:651-654:n:1017
    DOI: 10.2478/wd-2024-0166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0166
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/wd-2024-0166?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    2. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana & Semieniuk, Gregor, 2020. "Neither crowding in nor out: Public direct investment mobilising private investment into renewable electricity projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Sebastian Dullien & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober, 2024. "Brutto- und Nettoeinkommen von Arbeitnehmendenhaushalten 2021-2024: Kaufkraftluecke vor allem bei Familien," IMK Policy Brief 173-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, March.
    2. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: the Role of Decomposed Term Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 101-116, January.
    3. Briera, Thibault & Lefèvre, Julien, 2024. "Reducing the cost of capital through international climate finance to accelerate the renewable energy transition in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    4. Garret Kent Fellows & Jennifer Winter & Alaz Munzur, 2023. "An Analysis of Industrial Policy Mechanisms to Support Commercial Deployment of Bitumen Partial Upgrading in Alberta," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-49, March.
    5. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
    6. Erik Haustein & Sven Schreiber, 2016. "Adjusting production indices for varying weather effects," IMK Working Paper 171-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Li, Minyang & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Clean energy business expansion and financing availability: The role of government and market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Christian Menden & Christian R. Proaño, 2017. "Dissecting the financial cycle with dynamic factor models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1965-1994, December.
    9. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar M., 2023. "Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    11. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Chien, FengSheng & Li, Li & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2021. "Evaluating green innovation and performance of financial development: mediating concerns of environmental regulation," MPRA Paper 109671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Alt, Marius & Berger, Marius & Bersch, Johannes, 2023. "Investor responses to information updates on peer behavior and public investment policy: The case of green investments," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-024, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    14. Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark, 2020. "How to finance the transition to low-carbon energy in Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Schreiber, Sven, 2017. "Weather adjustment of economic output," Discussion Papers 2017/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    16. Vallès Codina Oriol & Semmler Willi, 2024. "Time Scales of the Low-Carbon Transition: A Data-Driven Dynamic Multi-Sector Growth Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 244(3), pages 169-200, June.
    17. Elie, Luc & Granier, Caroline & Rigot, Sandra, 2021. "The different types of renewable energy finance: A Bibliometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Schreiber, Sven & Soldatenkova, Natalia, 2016. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 166-187.
    19. Steffen Murau & Armin Haas & Andrei Guter-Sandu, 2024. "Monetary architecture and the Green Transition," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 56(2), pages 382-401, March.
    20. Mariana Reis Maria & Rosangela Ballini & Roney Fraga Souza, 2023. "Evolution of Green Finance: A Bibliometric Analysis through Complex Networks and Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-23, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:wirtsc:v:104:y:2024:i:9:p:651-654:n:1017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.