IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/stintr/v18y2017i3p393-412n8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Model Averaging and Jointness Measures: Theoretical Framework and Application to the Gravity Model of Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Beck Krzysztof

    (Lazarski University, ; Lazarski, ; Poland)

Abstract

The following study presents the idea of Bayesian model averaging (BMA), as well as the benefits coming from combining the knowledge obtained on the basis of analysis of different models. The BMA structure is described together with its most important statistics, g prior parameter proposals, prior model size distributions, and also the jointness measures proposed by Ley and Steel (2007), as well as Doppelhofer and Weeks (2009). The application of BMA is illustrated with the gravity model of trade, where determinants of trade are chosen from the list of nine different variables. The employment of BMA enabled the identification of four robust determinants: geographical distance, real GDP product, population product and real GDP per capita distance. At the same time applications of jointness measures reveal some rather surprising relationships between the variables, as well as demonstrate the superiority of Ley and Steel’s measure over the one introduced by Dopplehofer and Weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Beck Krzysztof, 2017. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Jointness Measures: Theoretical Framework and Application to the Gravity Model of Trade," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 393-412, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:stintr:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:393-412:n:8
    DOI: 10.21307/stattrans-2016-077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.21307/stattrans-2016-077
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21307/stattrans-2016-077?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Mariusz Próchniak & Bartosz Witkowski, 2014. "The application of Bayesian model averaging in assessing the impact of the regulatory framework on economic growth," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 14(1-2), pages 159-180, December.
    3. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2012. "Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian model averaging with economic applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 251-266.
    4. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    5. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kwiatkowski, Jacek, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Jointness Measures for gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i05).
    6. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    7. H. G. Grubel & P. J. Lloyd, 1971. "The Empirical Measurement of Intra‐Industry Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 47(4), pages 494-517, December.
    8. H. Gray, 1980. "The theory of international trade among industrial Nations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(3), pages 447-470, September.
    9. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    10. repec:bla:ecorec:v:47:y:1971:i:120:p:494-517 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
    12. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 2009/202, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Lancaster, Kelvin, 1980. "Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-175, May.
    14. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
    15. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    16. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    17. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    18. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    19. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krzysztof Beck, 2017. "Bayesian Model Averaging And Jointness Measures: Theoretical Framework And Application To The Gravity Model Of Trade," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 393-412, September.
    2. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    3. Bruns, Stephan B. & Ioannidis, John P.A., 2020. "Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Hofmarcher, Paul & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2018. "Bivariate jointness measures in Bayesian Model Averaging: Solving the conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 150-165.
    5. Krzysztof Beck & Michał Możdżeń, 2020. "Institutional Determinants of Budgetary Expenditures. A BMA-Based Re-Evaluation of Contemporary Theories for OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-31, May.
    6. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Bettina Grün & Paul Hofmarcher & Stefan Humer & Mathias Moser, 2015. "A Comprehensive Approach to Posterior Jointness Analysis in Bayesian Model Averaging Applications," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp193, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
    8. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
    9. Evelyn S. Devadason & Shujaat Mubarik, 2020. "ASEAN and the EU: an assessment of interregional trade potentials," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 705-726, July.
    10. Anastasia Dimiski, 2020. "Factors that affect Students’ performance in Science: An application using Gini-BMA methodology in PISA 2015 dataset," Working Papers 2004, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    11. Chengang Wang & Yingqi Wei & Xiaming Liu, 2010. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 894-915, July.
    12. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Jakub Gazda, 2019. "Sources of Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Bettina Grün & Paul Hofmarcher, 2021. "Identifying groups of determinants in Bayesian model averaging using Dirichlet process clustering," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(3), pages 1018-1045, September.
    14. Shahram Amini & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2020. "A Review of the ‘BMS’ Package for R with Focus on Jointness," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, February.
    15. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Luca Pedini, 2020. "ParMA: Parallelised Bayesian Model Averaging for Generalised Linear Models," Working Papers 2020:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    16. J. Hanna & L. L鶩 & S. Petit, 2015. "Intra-tourism trade, income distribution and tourism endowment: an econometric investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(21), pages 2184-2200, May.
    17. Sourish Dutta, 2023. "Horizontal and Vertical Differentiation: Approaching Endogenous Measurement in Intra-industry Trade," Papers 2307.10660, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    18. Paas, Tiiu, 2002. "Gravity Approach for Exploring Baltic Sea Regional Integration in the Field of International Trade," Discussion Paper Series 26379, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    19. Anis, Aslam H. & Benarroch, Michael & Wen, Quan, 2002. "Persistent protection in an international exit game," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 465-487, March.
    20. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:stintr:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:393-412:n:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://stat.gov.pl/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.