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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case

Author

Listed:
  • Melnychenko Oleksandr

    (Department of Finance, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland; The London Academy of Science and Business, United Kingdom)

  • Osadcha Tetiana

    (Accounting and Taxation Department, Odesa Mechnikov National University, Ukraine)

  • Kovalyov Anatoliy

    (Odessa National Economic University, Ukraine)

  • Matskul Valerii

    (Mathematical Methods of Economic Analysis Department, Odessa National Economic University, Ukraine)

Abstract

The study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank’s base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in Poland’s eight largest cities in the 2009-2021 period was studied. This price was modeled and predicted using one of the Box-Jenkins time series models: the Holt-Winter model of exponential smoothing with a damped trend. The forecasting results showed a small (up to 4%) relative error in comparison with the actual data. In addition, the moment (2017) of the price trend change was found. Therefore, piecewise linear regressions with high regression coefficients were used when modeling the impact of inflation changes on the real estate market indicators under consideration. The results obtained provide valuable insight into the relationship of real estate market indicators, allowing consumers to predict available options and make decisions in accordance with their preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Melnychenko Oleksandr & Osadcha Tetiana & Kovalyov Anatoliy & Matskul Valerii, 2022. "Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 25-41, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:30:y:2022:i:4:p:25-41:n:8
    DOI: 10.2478/remav-2022-0027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, February.
    2. Manzhynski, Siarhei & Źróbek, Sabina & Batura, Olga & Zysk, Elżbieta, 2018. "Why the market value of residential premises and the costs of its purchase differ: The examples of Belarus and Poland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 530-539.
    3. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 607-670, November.
    4. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate; housing; inflation; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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